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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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