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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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