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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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