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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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