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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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