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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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