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Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain tight in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai – China’s busiest points of entry – economic activity is resuming in lower-risk regions.
Market sentiment for steel is optimistic, with production picking up and inventory finally running down. However, the coal market remains gloomy with weak market fundamentals, bringing both thermal and metallurgical coal prices down.
In this article, analysts Nuomin Han, Zhai Yu, Simon Wu, Zhilu Wang and Ti Guo bring you an update from across China’s bulks sector.
Coal supply: import disruptions continue
Domestic coal supply has already returned to normal, but disruptions remain on the import side. Mongolian coal supply took another twist when border crossings didn’t reopen as scheduled on 16 March – precautionary measures were not well prepared amid confirmation of further coronavirus cases in Mongolia. The reopening of border crossings is now rescheduled for 1 April.
Thermal coal: weak demand adds to an unfavourable outlook
The Qinhuangdao 5,500 price has slid further in the past week, due to weak demand. Daily coal consumption by the six largest gencos in the coastal region remains at 80% of last year’s level. In addition, heating supply in many provinces has ended. The National Bureau of Statistics issued its macroeconomic indicators for the first two months of the year: the slump in figures and the global spread of coronavirus suggest an unfavourable outlook for the coal market.
With no change in the fundamentals, we expect the Qinhuangdao price to keep falling this week.
Metallurgical coal: price pressure won’t ease quickly
While finished steel stockpiles have started to fall, they remain at high levels. As such, coke prices were cut for a fourth time by RMB50/t, despite resistance from coke makers. Some coking plants in northwest China have reported losses after prices have quickly declined by RMB200/t in recent weeks.
Stagnant coke demand has enhanced the fall in coking coal prices in Shanxi, with Liulin #4 dropping RMB70/t in the week and Anze low-sulphur premium HCC falling by RMB110/t.
The price arbitrage between domestic and imported coking coal has narrowed under the weak demand picture, further eroding the price advantage of imported coking coal and ramping up pressure on prices.
We expect downstream industries to continue to recover in the coming weeks, helping steel demand to pick up. However, the pressure on coking coal prices is unlikely to be relieved quickly, as the destocking of steel will take some time. As such, prices will remain weak for a short while.
Steel and iron ore: as downstream operations resumed, inventory started to fall
Just as the market expected, finished steel inventory started to fall as more stable downstream operations resumed. Steel production is also picking up, as more electric arc furnace steelmakers resume operations on improved margin conditions. Rebar spot and futures are particularly firm among other commodities that have been freefalling amid the global financial shock.
Market sentiment shows strong confidence in China’s property sector and the government’s efforts to leverage the economy through infrastructure. Most Chinese-made rebar is consumed domestically. However, oversupply remains a risk – apart from the high finished steel inventory, we shouldn’t forget semi-finished, which isn’t included in the inventory statistics. Official data shows production of crude steel grew 3.1% year-on-year in January and February, but finished steel production dropped 3.4%.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 30 January 20
CAPE: WITH CHINESE NEW YEAR TAKING PLACE, THE RATES ARE REACHING FURTHER DISAPPOINTING LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
With Chinese New Year taking place, the rates are reaching further disappointing levels. Present TC average is below USD 4,500, off 24% fr ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
INDONESIA REMAINS AT THE TOP SPOT IN 2019 AS THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF COAL TO INDIA WITH 91.3 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Despite repeated promises from India’s government to reduce the country’s coal imports and increase domestic self-reliance, volumes jus ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last week Libya’s oil production operations were disrupted as it was reported that local Libyan tribes interrupted output at the the El Feel ...
Tuesday, 28 January 20
INDONESIA - UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABILITY OF LSFO - THE STANDARD CLUB
The club has received reports that low sulphur fuel is not currently readily available in all Indonesian ports and that there are local shortages.
...
Sunday, 26 January 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN BASIN SAW A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SAMARINDA TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $4,750 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market endured heavy losses throughout the past week, with the Capesize 5TC dropping from $8,352 to $4,772. In the lead up to Chin ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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