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Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
Banchero Costa LogoIn the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents an increase of +7.1% year-on-year, compared to the 360.9 mln tonnes exported in calendar 2018. In terms of trade patterns, things were changing fast. Mainland China is increasingly the dominant destination, accounting for 31.7% of all exports of Indonesian coal in 2019. This is up from a 30.2% share in 2018, said Banchero Costa in its latest weekly report.
 
Banchero Costa further noted that, In terms of trade patterns, things were changing fast. Mainland China is increasingly the dominant destination, accounting for 31.7% of all exports of Indonesian coal in 2019. This is up from a 30.2% share in 2018. Total volumes to Mainland China increased by +12.5% in 2019 to 122.5 mln tonnes. This is a significant acceleration from the +2.1% growth seen last year.
 
Banchero Costa also reported that, volumes also increased to India, by +6.0% y-o-y to 90.1 mln tonnes, from 85.0 mln tonnes in 2018. India now accounts for 23.3% of Indonesia’s exports, essentially same as the 23.5% in 2018. 
 
Exports to Malaysia were up +25.2% in 2019 to 19.9 mln tonnes. Malaysia’s share is now 5.2%. Total shipments to ASEAN countries (excluding Indonesian cabotage) now account for about 10.5% of Indonesia’s total coal exports. Shipments to Taiwan have also jumped, by +8.9% year-on-year in 2019 to 17.1 mln tonnes. Taiwan’s share was 4.4%, same as a year ago.
 
On the other hand, Banchero Costa said, exports to South Korea crashed last year, by -19.0% y-o-y to 23.0 mln tonnes, from 28.4 mln tonnes in 2018. This follows on a -11.8% decline already seen last year. South Korea now accounts for 6.0% of Indonesia’s coal exports, down from 7.9% in 2018. 
 
Volumes to Japan Banchero Costa said, have also contracted in 2019, by -2.3% year on-year to 25.3 mln tonnes. This follows an even deeper contraction of -9.4% recorded the previous year.  Japan now accounts for 6.5% of Indonesia’s exports. 
 
What about 2020? 
 
What we have seen so far is definitely not what you would expect, given the state of world affairs….. In the Jan-Feb period of 2020, Indonesia shipped 64.5 mln tonnes of coal, which was up +3.4% y-o-y. Shipments from Indonesia to China, at 21.5 mln tonnes, are a very strong +18.9% year-on-year in the first 2 months of 2020. China was the destination of 32.6% of all Indonesian coal exports in these two months.
 
However we have to remember that this is an expected rebound after very modest Chinese imports in Q4 of last year, which were low due to annual quotas on imports imposed by the government. 
 
Another factor which contributed to the increase in Chinese purchases from Indonesia last month was the logistical disruptions and manpower issues which affected domestic mining and distribution of domestic coal making coastal power plants more reliant on seaborne imports. 
 
Exports to Japan are also significantly up +30.9% year-on year to 5.38 mln tonnes in the first 2 months of 2020.
 
Those to ASEAN countries (primarily Malaysia and Thailand) are also up by a very strong +46.5% year-on-year to 8.4 mln tonnes. On the other hand, shipments to India are down by -14.2% year-on year to 14.3 mln tonnes.  Volumes to South Korea contracted even more sharply by -20.3% year on-year to 3.3 mln tonnes.


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