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Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of coronavirus (COVID-19). In its recent report, the IEA estimates global oil demand at 99.9 mbpd in 2020, which is around 90,000 bpd lower than in 2019 and a sharp downgrade from the agency’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand will grow 825,000 bpd in 2020.
The market expected OPEC+ to cut supply as the COVID-19 epidemic has spread from China to Europe, the Americas and Middle East. However, the negotiations failed due to strong resistance from Russia, which is of the view that the policy of capping production by OPEC+ producers to support the oil price is facilitating the development of US shale oil, with Russia losing its market share to increasing exports from the US.
After the failure of production cut talks in Vienna, Saudi Arabia started a price war by slashing the official selling prices for crude for key buyers in the international market and hinted at raising crude oil production to full capacity of 12.3 mbpd from April 2020. The ‘shock and awe’ tactics of Saudi Arabia could be a move to impose maximum pain in the quickest possible way to Russia and other producers, in an effort to renegotiate the proposed production cut and then quickly reverse the production surge and thereafter implement the production cut if a deal is reached.
However, the recent move by Saudi Arabia could lead to:
a) Renegotiation on a production cut between OPEC and Russia
b) Prolonged price war between OPEC, Russia and US producers
If there are fresh negotiations to implement a production cut by OPEC+ producers to accommodate the effect of declining oil demand, crude oil prices are expected to normalise.
But if there is a prolonged price war between Saudi Arabia, Russia and US shale oil producers, lower crude oil prices will lead to some improvement in global oil demand and refinery runs. At the same time, onshore stocking activity will also increase, especially in countries such as China as they build their Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A global supply glut is also likely to lead to an increase in floating storage especially among oil producers.
At the same time, sustained weakness in oil prices will eventually hurt US shale oil producers because of their relatively higher cost of production. In such circumstances, the market share of Middle Eastern crude will increase at the expense of US crude.
Meanwhile, tanker rates surged due to a sudden increase in VLCC chartering from Bahri, Saudi Arabia’s national shipping arm. Bahri fixed at least 18 VLCCs since the Kingdom aims to pump more crude into the market as its price war with Russia escalates. The VLCC earnings on Middle East–China (TD3C) route skyrocketed to $166,000pd on 11 March from $30,300pd on 06 March.
If Saudi Arabia manages to strike a deal with Russia to cut production in the short term, tanker rates will plummet to the pre-price war levels because of the ongoing weakness in crude oil trade on account of the spread of COVID-19 globally. On the other hand, if there is a prolonged price war, tonnage demand will rise initially with the increase in oil demand and stocking activity, which in turn will keep freight rates above pre-price war levels.
However, once sustained weakness in oil prices starts hurting US crude production, Middle Eastern crude will start displacing US crude in Asia. This in turn will squeeze tonne-mile demand for tankers as the distance between the US to Asia is almost double the distance between the Middle East to Asia. Thus we estimate that every barrel per day of annual decline in US exports to Asia at the expense of the Middle East will lead to about a 2.5% decline in overall tonne-mile demand for tankers. Freight rates in such a situation will plunge below the pre-price war levels.
Source: Drewry
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Saturday, 21 March 20
PANAMAX: 82,000DWT SHIP AGREED $4,250 FOR A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made some headway this past week despite being buffeted by the global pandemic storm. With the market in a constan ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
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Showing 1056 to 1060 news of total 6871 |
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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