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Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
 It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the start of the year, it was one of the favorite topics amongst participants in the shipping industry how challenging 2020 would be. However, no one could have guessed the level of this challenge. With some certainty, we can argue that Covid-19 spread will be a strong test, from a social, as well as an economical perspective. Instead of making further assumptions as to how the virus outbreak may or may not affect different market aspects, we could take things from a different angle and view hoping to better understand how different mechanisms are currently reacting to this unique situation, Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research said in his latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the global economic slowdown seems to be the inevitable outcome, emphatically evident from the recent trends being portrayed in global markets. Beyond this, the real question is as to how big this step back will eventually be. Week over week all forecasts regarding economic development and macroeconomic trends seem very prone to downward revisions, given that the virus spread seems to be more dynamic and unpredictable as time goes by. A glimpse of optimism was noted during the past weeks, given the decreasing rate of new cases testing positive to the COVID-19 virus in China. However, witnessing the hefty growth in cases reported in Italy (and across Europe), a strong wave of doubt and uncertainty has firmly hit the general economic environment. The discussions surrounding a wider quantitative easing will certainly help stabilize financial markets, a tool that has helped in many cases of severe downward pressure in the past. Regardless though of the effort made by central institutions and given the unpredictable time duration of this tail risk, it will eventually be a unique test as to the credit risks present in the financial industry. Furthermore, witnessing the steep collapse of more than 30% in oil price, the scene has become even more volatile. Theoretically, "cheap" oil would be a boost for growth and consumer spending power. However, when overall demand is, to say the least, fragile, in what way this "abundant" supply could affect the real economy seems rather questionable.
How does all the above translate over to the shipping industry? Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping Research says, certainly, the anticipation of a major step back in economic growth (which means respectively a significant slowdown in seaborne trade), can't be under any case be considered a "good" sign. A somehow opposing argument to this is the fact that dry FFA long-term contracts have increased since the beginning of the year. Maybe, this is just an optimistic opinion shared by a small minority, or maybe the fundamentals are strong, and this periodical affect is unrelated to the macro economical prospect of the dry bulk sector.
In any case, given the mixed macroeconomic environment, it would be wise to focus for the time being on the near-term picture noted in the dry bulk sector. The past couple of weeks the market seems to be in a state of transition, seemingly in a process of recovering from a freight market bottom (especially for the medium size segments – Panamaxes and Supramaxes). Time is the key variable here. As the virus spread doesn't seem to be yet under check, sentiment will turn ever more negative, while extra pressure will be applied to cash reserves and cash flows as well as to daily operating activities. On the other hand, the window of a steeper upward potential is growing, given the higher slippage rate of cargo volumes that potentially could take shape. This may well mean that we could see exaggerated returns take place from the early onset of the summer period.
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Wednesday, 19 February 20
AS OCEAN TEMPERATURES RISE, SHIPOWNERS LOOK FOR WAYS TO COPE - WARTSILA
The world is heating up, and its oceans are no exception. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the oceans absorb the majo ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The coronavirus outbreak is estimated to negatively affect global economy by at least EUR400bn this year, representing around the 0.4% of global GD ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO SHIPPED 27 PERCENT OF ITS TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION IN 2019 TO INDIA AND CHINA
PT Adaro Energy Tbk (AE) produced 58.03 Mt of coal from PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), Balangan Coal Companies and Adaro Me ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO REMAINS POSITIVE ON THE LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS OF COAL MARKET SUPPORTED BY THE SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA REGION
The global seaborne thermal coal market in 2019 was faced with macro and industry challenges which pushed international coa ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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