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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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