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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 18 January 20
GERMAN STEAM COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 PLUMMETED BY 17 % - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Press Release: According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), world trade in h ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
A 61,400 DWT FIXED FROM SOUTH EAST ASIA DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA IN THE LOW $7,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was relatively stable over this past week putting an end to the past months of more extreme declines. While the Capesize 5T ...
Friday, 17 January 20
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 65 MMST (9%) TO 690 MMST IN 2019. IN 2020, COAL PRODUCTION WILL DECLINE BY A FURTHER 14% TO 597 MMST
U.S. Coal Supply.
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 65 million short tons (MMst) (9%) to 690 MMst in 2019. In 2020, EIA ...
Friday, 17 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index, a gauge of coal p ...
Thursday, 16 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA ROUND VOYAGE FIXING AROUND LOW/MID USD 6,000 BSS APS INDO - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Still very rough seas for the big ships, with the majority of the fleet trading Far East or fronthaul and consequently earning far les ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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