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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 30 January 20
CAPE: WITH CHINESE NEW YEAR TAKING PLACE, THE RATES ARE REACHING FURTHER DISAPPOINTING LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
With Chinese New Year taking place, the rates are reaching further disappointing levels. Present TC average is below USD 4,500, off 24% fr ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
INDONESIA REMAINS AT THE TOP SPOT IN 2019 AS THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF COAL TO INDIA WITH 91.3 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Despite repeated promises from India’s government to reduce the country’s coal imports and increase domestic self-reliance, volumes jus ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last week Libya’s oil production operations were disrupted as it was reported that local Libyan tribes interrupted output at the the El Feel ...
Tuesday, 28 January 20
INDONESIA - UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABILITY OF LSFO - THE STANDARD CLUB
The club has received reports that low sulphur fuel is not currently readily available in all Indonesian ports and that there are local shortages.
...
Sunday, 26 January 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN BASIN SAW A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SAMARINDA TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $4,750 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market endured heavy losses throughout the past week, with the Capesize 5TC dropping from $8,352 to $4,772. In the lead up to Chin ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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