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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 18 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND ITS IMPACT ON YOUR CONTRACT - CAN YOU RELY ON 'FORCE MAJEURE'? - INCE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (officially t ...
Monday, 17 February 20
IMO-2020 SULPHUR CAP - ISSUES TO CONSIDER PRIOR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CARRIAGE BAN ON 1 MARCH 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
With the IMO 2020 global sulphur cap now in force, members should bear in mind another significant date in relation to the ‘carriage ban&rsqu ...
Monday, 17 February 20
COVID-19: THE EFFECT OF THIS PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY ON CHARTERPARTY TERMS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Is it useful to compare the COVID-19 with earlier disease outbreaks?
A comparison with the Ebola outbreak ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - REUTERS
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHEN ZHIDA: NOVEL CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR CHARTERPARTIES - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Last month, the Club issued a bulletin on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) which explained the origin of the virus a ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
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