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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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