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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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