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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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