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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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