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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s outcome is a psychological blow for the market, as the steep plunge in oil prices shows.
“And the market is now facing the spectre of unrestrained production once the current OPEC+ agreement expires in March.
“However, we do not think Saudi Arabia will push hard to lift their output in the northern hemisphere spring.
“Given weak demand and the likelihood this weakness will persist into the second quarter, it will be hard for any producer to increase their output sharply once the original production deal expires at the end of this month.”
Demand risks
She added: “One factor to bear in mind is that the plunge in demand we saw in Q1 was created by circumstances in China. The country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) containment measures have been far more stringent than those imposed anywhere else, and are not likely to be copied elsewhere.
“The lack of a production deal carries risk. This would become apparent if global economic growth weakens and oil demand continues to contract more sharply than expected thanks to the double whammy of coronavirus containment measures and falling GDP.”
Hittle said: “Our current projection sees global liquids demand fall by 2.7 million b/d year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first year-on-year decline on a quarterly basis since Q2 2009.
“It is the most severe decline since Q4 2008, the height of the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, which saw demand tumble by 2.8 million b/d year-on-year.”
Hittle said: “If the impact the coronavirus has had on global oil demand is sustained, then by the second half of the year we’d expect to see weaker GDP. This will have a far greater impact on oil demand than just temporary reductions in jet fuel and gasoline demand.
“A longer, sustained outbreak of coronavirus threatens to hit oil demand with a double whammy: already weak demand will soften further because of containment measures, and this will weaken GDP.”
What next?
What does this mean for OPEC and OPEC+? It would mean that the group would likely need to monitor economic indicators closely. It may even mean that they could be forced to call an emergency meeting during the second quarter.
She added: “A sustained bout of low oil prices will further reduce cash flow and investment into the US oil patch, causing further hits to Lower 48 production growth later this year. It takes at least six to nine months for reductions in spend to lead to lower oil production in the US Lower 48.
“In that time, their access to capital may be limited and their free cash flow badly hit.
“The only silver lining in a very dark cloud is for refining – the sector will be hit hard by weak demand, but it is at least saved from tightening crude differentials associated with a major cut in OPEC supplies.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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