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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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