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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 15 February 20
AFRAMAX: A MORE POSITIVE ATTITUDE EXISTED IN THIS SECTOR WITH RATES IMPROVING ON ALL ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
VLCC
The market in the Middle East was unmoved this week, with Chinese refiners continuing to slow imports, allied with the impact of the Coron ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
A 56,000DWT VESSEL WAS CONCLUDED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Riding the downward momentum of the previous week, the market was always going to be hard pressed to make any sort of revival. With mu ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION WILL TOTAL 595 MMST IN 2020, DOWN 14% FROM 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019.
Lower ...
Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between Chin ...
Friday, 14 February 20
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.275 MILLION TONS OF MIN. 5,600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co. Ltd (KOWEPO). as a representative of five Korean Gencos has issued an international tender for total 1,275,00 ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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