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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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