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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- The University of Queensland
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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