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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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