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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growth outlook at risk. The full scale and impact of the outbreak remain to be seen, but it is certainly an unwelcome new wildcard for bulks demand. So, what is the potential impact on steel, iron ore, metallurgical and thermal coal?
This article includes key points from the insight ‘Coronavirus: assessing the impacts on bulks’. Fill in the form on this page for a complimentary copy of the full insight.
What is already clear is that the coronavirus outbreak threatens an otherwise positive near-term outlook. A solid end to the year meant China’s economy secured annual growth of 6.1% in 2019. Metals demand was also showing signs of improvement – mainly on the back of accelerated Industrial Production (IP) and Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicators in November and December, an uptick of auto production in December, and a recovery in property completions across Q4.
China’s Phase One trade deal with the US also fuelled expectations that its macroeconomy would remain robust in H1 2020. The coronavirus outbreak has put this outlook at risk.
Steel demand will be affected
Consumer activity in China has been hit by the extended holiday period, transport bans and quarantines. The restrictions on the workforce have also delayed the restart of some construction projects – and as construction accounts for two-thirds of Chinese steel demand the implications are stark. Crude steel and hot metal demand – previously set to grow this year – are now facing a year-on-year decline.
China has felt the impact of a virus outbreak before. In 2003, SARS slowed construction activities, delayed the springtime peak for steel demand and put pressure on rebar prices.
But what can we really learn from the experience of the SARS epidemic? And how could steel be affected this time around? Fill in the form to read the full complimentary insight.
How is the coronavirus outbreak affecting bulks?
Metallurgical coal
The direct impact on metallurgical coal imports has been relatively muted. Production at coastal mills is strong and we don’t expect the outbreak to drive a significant change in import trends – the high availability of stocks from the customs clearance delays in 2019 currently has a bigger influence.
In the very near term, the extended holiday period has meant that the impact on domestic metallurgical coal supply is greater than the impact on demand. Resultant coal shortages are pushing prices higher.
However, an inevitable decline in steel demand will affect steel prices and margins. Lower steel margins will ultimately impact on metallurgical coal markets. We expect metallurgical coal demand between March and May to be lower than it would have been as a result.
Iron ore
We expect a relatively low impact on iron ore demand. Chinese blast furnace (BF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) steel production should remain resilient, with most large integrated operations continuing to operate, if at a reduced rate. Iron ore prices have taken a hit, driven by uncertainty and a lack of volume during the holiday period.
Read the full insight for more on our price forecast, and how slower end-use demand from construction could affect producers.
Thermal coal
Thermal coal demand and domestic production will both be dented by weakening economic and industrial activity. Domestic supply is returning quickly, but demand is slower to recover – potentially leading to an oversupply situation in March. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens.
The effect on international prices is likely to be volatile in the very short-term as the outbreak remains an emerging news story. Throughout the year though, the downside risk for prices is muted, given how significantly they fell in 2019 and that many producers are already in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this would likely be a temporary drop until China’s imports picked up again towards the end of the year.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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