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Friday, 21 February 20
CAPE: AVERAGE NOMINAL DAILY EARNINGS STILL ADMITTEDLY UNCHANGED W-O-W AT BELOW US$3000 - FEARNLEYS
FearnleysCAPE
The worst may just about be over for the big ships. Average nominal daily earnings still admittedly unchanged w-o-w at below US$3k, but sentiment turning to careful optimism and Far East cargo flows in particular increasing somewhat said Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. Question asked for weeks is what merit is there in employing tonnage at earnings closer to zero/day than opex, and with extensive drifting + ultra-slow steaming we may now be in for a resultant recoil if ore and coal volumes live up to expectations.

According to Fearnleys, Atlantic and fronthaul spot trades still have a long way to go in this respect, making any forecast uncertain. Several players have taken advantage of the recent dramatic downturn to pick quality period tonnage at heavy discounts, most recently exemplified by 206000 dwt built 2012 done for 14-17 months at US$14500/day - more conclusions expected in days and weeks to come.

PANAMAX
Commenting on Panamax, Fearnleys research team said that another positive week with numbers moving upwards in the Panamax-segment, especially in the ECSA region and in the east. For a Transatlantic trip, Kamsarmaxes (82.500 DWT) earn around the low USD 4,000's, while short fronthauls from the UK/Continent-region are priced at high USD 13,000.

For grains ECSA/China charterers are paying around USD 8,500 DOP Singapore for a round trip. A Transpacific round voyage in the east pay ship owners around the high USD 5,000's, and the Baltic 4TC-Index is up 140 points since last week, now at 722 points.

SUPRAMAX
Sentiment have improved slightly the last weeks with indices starting to turn green for the first time this year Fearnleys report indicated. However, the report says, levels still are still generally low. USG fronthaul currently pays low 20s, up from high teens a couple of weeks ago. Aps Indo rounds currently yields mid 7,000s USD pd, up from low 6,000s USD pd earlier this year. Going forward, further gains hinge on China returning in full from the corona virus related shutdowns.


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