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Wednesday, 19 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IntermodalThe coronavirus outbreak is estimated to negatively affect global economy by at least EUR400bn this year, representing around the 0.4% of global GDP. The degree to which different economies will be affected varies, with some countries looking at damages only in few industries. In that spirit, since the Greek economy is not very reliant to the Chinese one, we can assume that the sector that will suffer most will be tourism, taking into consideration the upcoming holiday cancellation domino effect from Asia based citizens. 
 
The Chinese government announced that aggressive measures will come into effect in an effort to limit the impact of a major shock from the spread of the coronavirus outbreak to the global economy. Part of these measures will include a brave injection of 1.2 trillion yuan (EUR 156 billion) in the country’s financial system as well as tariff exemptions on US farm, medical and energy products. In an effort to assess the extent that the economic impact the virus outbreak will have, Goldman Sachs analysts estimated that only a 0.1%-0.2% of the global economy will be affected, with this cost climbing up to 0.3% of the global GDP in the most pessimistic scenario.
 
The tanker market was the last one feeling the impact of the virus outbreak, with demand and rates being affected fairly recently compared to other sectors, however, if the spread continues for a long time, then Chinese demand for oil may experience contraction and push rates to even lower levels. On the dirty tanker market, we have seen a fall over the last weeks due to the lifting of US sanctions on Chinese-interest ships, with almost 40 VLCC tankers having returned to the market, significantly increasing the availability of tonnage as a result. In addition, as the countries of the West gradually enter the spring season, a brake on demand for tanker vessels is also on the cards due to seasonality.
 
On other news that could have a negative impact in the progress of the industry, the Manila Times newspaper pointed out the systematic failure of Philippine's Naval Schools and Academies to meet the international standards of training for a variety of reasons, including the poor naval training system, especially for low-wage crews. 
 
According to the Philippine Maritime Industry Authority (Marina), 61 of the country's 91 naval schools should immediately cease their operations as there is no compliance with the requirements of the STCW (International Maritime Organization Convention on Standards of Training Certification and Watchkeeping for Seafarers). A development like that, which concerns the two-thirds of naval schools in the country, will seriously affect the capacity to train seafarers and the international credibility of all graduates from the Philippine naval schools.
By Zisis Stylianos
SnP Broker
 
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima

Mr.George Panagopoulos


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
 
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