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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 19 December 19
BANGLADESH'S NBR CUTS VAT ON COAL IMPORT FOR POWER PLANTS - THE DAILY STAR
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) reduced value added tax on the import of coal for power plants to 5 percent from present 15 percent for five ye ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
AVERAGE PRICES OF COAL IN 2018 WERE MORE THAN 60% HIGHER THAN IN 2016 - IEA
Coal use grew again in 2018.
Global coal demand increased by 1.1%, continuing the rebound that began in 2017 after three years of decline ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
ASIA IS SET TO SUPPORT GLOBAL COAL DEMAND FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS - IEA
Press Release: Global coal demand is expected to decline in 2019 but remain broadly stable over the next five years, supported by robust growth in ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know very well by now, the reduction in the maximum allowable sulphur content of marine fuels in 2020 is likely to have a massive impact ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
AUSTRALIA ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR TURNS SCROOGE ON COAL LOBBY: RUSSELL
Australia, which vies with Indonesia for the title of the world’s largest coal exporter, is planning for an electricity future where use of t ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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