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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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