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Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
 Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between China and the West — and China and the U.S., in particular. However, there are far-reaching effects that have not been contemplated fully beyond the intuitive assessment.
Things move slowly. China has long been known as a country with patience, which in business language translates to longer lead times in the transactional arena, sometimes exhaustive negotiations, and relationships are built over time. Many of these relationships are created in the environment of trade shows, conferences, information exchange platforms, and trade delegations. China has finely tuned this method of cross-border introductions and it is a continuous process.
Combined with this is the growth of the multinational business presence in China. Major retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, biotech, automotive and other sectors are firmly planted in China with technology and personnel. Now, with the essentially closed border with China, the rest of the world waits and watches. To the business community, this is unsettling, to say the least, because there is no accurate predictor of when a vaccine may be found or when the world threat eradicated. Even when those pronouncements are ultimately made by Beijing there is the inherent distrust of information disseminated by the Chinese government.
So what does all of this mean for cross-border business in the short and long term?
An aerial view reveals that the movement of people and technology and deal closure have simply come to a halt. When the Chinese government, or other governments, or the WHO pronounce that it is safe to travel to China again, that will not be the end of it. There has been a worldwide reaction to the scare. The tradeshow and related cancellations have occurred not only in China but throughout Asia and into Europe. Therefore, a wide swath of activities are upended across all business sectors.
The rate of new cases slowed on Wednesday. As of this writing, there have been more than 45,000 cases of Covid-19 and over 1,100 deaths. Businesses from cruise ships to luxury brands and air travel, as well as global markets like oil, have all been hit. There can be no question that it will be a slow and painful process moving back to normalcy. Professional offices remain closed indefinitely, and 90% of businesses are closed or at dramatically reduced hours. Theaters, factories and others where people congregate are closed.
We are all familiar with the recent comparisons of coronavirus with SARS, but there is no real comparison. SARS was perceived as essentially a Hong Kong-centric event and everyone wondered if that would be the death of the HK economy, coming a few years after the handover. Moreover, social media and its impact on global interaction were just launching, and China’s interaction with the world economy was in its infancy.
Transparency will be the key to short term confidence which will lead to a long-term recovery. This is despite short-term pain and embarrassment. All governments can learn a lesson from this, but Beijing has yet to learn it. It may very well be that Wuhan, as ground zero for the Coronavirus, never recovers. The headlines today paint Wuhan as a pariah city, in a wartime battle and in lockdown. The Chinese Chernobyl. These characterizations will not be easily shed. Wuhan, as the capital of Hubei province, has positioned itself as a foreign investment hub and has developed trade, manufacturing and export and development zones to highlight its growth and position within China. Companies will have to assess whether or not their investments should remain in Wuhan or be moved.
Considering China’s impact on the world economy, China will not be off limits to future investment forever. Instead, there will be wariness and unbridled caution for the foreseeable future. Businesses will seek alternatives to avoid commercial and liability issues.
In the best case, returning to normal is not a reasonable expectation in the short term. In the long term, China must take all steps necessary to demonstrate its commitment to transparency regarding all factors relating to the virus. In today’s economy, there are many alternatives for trade and investment and China must recognize that its global trade partners need regular and repeated reassurances. Additionally, China will need to inject substantial financial incentives into the economy to balance against commercial and optical risks.
In the best of circumstances, this process will take six to nine months to see the way forward to a stable and commercially feasible reintroduction of business, confidence and renewed investment. This will require unrelenting adjustments as events require. There is no single action or vaccine that will erase the impact of the coronavirus. A group of actions are needed to restore the zeal and excitement for consumer, business, investment and tourism.
Anything less will create a lingering atmosphere of caution and distrust.
Source: CNBC
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Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SINGAPORE'S APEX TO LAUNCH LOW-SULFUR FUEL OIL CONTRACT AHEAD OF NEW SHIPPING RULES - REUTERS
Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) will launch a low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) futures contract on Friday aimed at helping shipping and ener ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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