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Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
 Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between China and the West — and China and the U.S., in particular. However, there are far-reaching effects that have not been contemplated fully beyond the intuitive assessment.
Things move slowly. China has long been known as a country with patience, which in business language translates to longer lead times in the transactional arena, sometimes exhaustive negotiations, and relationships are built over time. Many of these relationships are created in the environment of trade shows, conferences, information exchange platforms, and trade delegations. China has finely tuned this method of cross-border introductions and it is a continuous process.
Combined with this is the growth of the multinational business presence in China. Major retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, biotech, automotive and other sectors are firmly planted in China with technology and personnel. Now, with the essentially closed border with China, the rest of the world waits and watches. To the business community, this is unsettling, to say the least, because there is no accurate predictor of when a vaccine may be found or when the world threat eradicated. Even when those pronouncements are ultimately made by Beijing there is the inherent distrust of information disseminated by the Chinese government.
So what does all of this mean for cross-border business in the short and long term?
An aerial view reveals that the movement of people and technology and deal closure have simply come to a halt. When the Chinese government, or other governments, or the WHO pronounce that it is safe to travel to China again, that will not be the end of it. There has been a worldwide reaction to the scare. The tradeshow and related cancellations have occurred not only in China but throughout Asia and into Europe. Therefore, a wide swath of activities are upended across all business sectors.
The rate of new cases slowed on Wednesday. As of this writing, there have been more than 45,000 cases of Covid-19 and over 1,100 deaths. Businesses from cruise ships to luxury brands and air travel, as well as global markets like oil, have all been hit. There can be no question that it will be a slow and painful process moving back to normalcy. Professional offices remain closed indefinitely, and 90% of businesses are closed or at dramatically reduced hours. Theaters, factories and others where people congregate are closed.
We are all familiar with the recent comparisons of coronavirus with SARS, but there is no real comparison. SARS was perceived as essentially a Hong Kong-centric event and everyone wondered if that would be the death of the HK economy, coming a few years after the handover. Moreover, social media and its impact on global interaction were just launching, and China’s interaction with the world economy was in its infancy.
Transparency will be the key to short term confidence which will lead to a long-term recovery. This is despite short-term pain and embarrassment. All governments can learn a lesson from this, but Beijing has yet to learn it. It may very well be that Wuhan, as ground zero for the Coronavirus, never recovers. The headlines today paint Wuhan as a pariah city, in a wartime battle and in lockdown. The Chinese Chernobyl. These characterizations will not be easily shed. Wuhan, as the capital of Hubei province, has positioned itself as a foreign investment hub and has developed trade, manufacturing and export and development zones to highlight its growth and position within China. Companies will have to assess whether or not their investments should remain in Wuhan or be moved.
Considering China’s impact on the world economy, China will not be off limits to future investment forever. Instead, there will be wariness and unbridled caution for the foreseeable future. Businesses will seek alternatives to avoid commercial and liability issues.
In the best case, returning to normal is not a reasonable expectation in the short term. In the long term, China must take all steps necessary to demonstrate its commitment to transparency regarding all factors relating to the virus. In today’s economy, there are many alternatives for trade and investment and China must recognize that its global trade partners need regular and repeated reassurances. Additionally, China will need to inject substantial financial incentives into the economy to balance against commercial and optical risks.
In the best of circumstances, this process will take six to nine months to see the way forward to a stable and commercially feasible reintroduction of business, confidence and renewed investment. This will require unrelenting adjustments as events require. There is no single action or vaccine that will erase the impact of the coronavirus. A group of actions are needed to restore the zeal and excitement for consumer, business, investment and tourism.
Anything less will create a lingering atmosphere of caution and distrust.
Source: CNBC
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Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling t ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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