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Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
 Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between China and the West — and China and the U.S., in particular. However, there are far-reaching effects that have not been contemplated fully beyond the intuitive assessment.
Things move slowly. China has long been known as a country with patience, which in business language translates to longer lead times in the transactional arena, sometimes exhaustive negotiations, and relationships are built over time. Many of these relationships are created in the environment of trade shows, conferences, information exchange platforms, and trade delegations. China has finely tuned this method of cross-border introductions and it is a continuous process.
Combined with this is the growth of the multinational business presence in China. Major retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, biotech, automotive and other sectors are firmly planted in China with technology and personnel. Now, with the essentially closed border with China, the rest of the world waits and watches. To the business community, this is unsettling, to say the least, because there is no accurate predictor of when a vaccine may be found or when the world threat eradicated. Even when those pronouncements are ultimately made by Beijing there is the inherent distrust of information disseminated by the Chinese government.
So what does all of this mean for cross-border business in the short and long term?
An aerial view reveals that the movement of people and technology and deal closure have simply come to a halt. When the Chinese government, or other governments, or the WHO pronounce that it is safe to travel to China again, that will not be the end of it. There has been a worldwide reaction to the scare. The tradeshow and related cancellations have occurred not only in China but throughout Asia and into Europe. Therefore, a wide swath of activities are upended across all business sectors.
The rate of new cases slowed on Wednesday. As of this writing, there have been more than 45,000 cases of Covid-19 and over 1,100 deaths. Businesses from cruise ships to luxury brands and air travel, as well as global markets like oil, have all been hit. There can be no question that it will be a slow and painful process moving back to normalcy. Professional offices remain closed indefinitely, and 90% of businesses are closed or at dramatically reduced hours. Theaters, factories and others where people congregate are closed.
We are all familiar with the recent comparisons of coronavirus with SARS, but there is no real comparison. SARS was perceived as essentially a Hong Kong-centric event and everyone wondered if that would be the death of the HK economy, coming a few years after the handover. Moreover, social media and its impact on global interaction were just launching, and China’s interaction with the world economy was in its infancy.
Transparency will be the key to short term confidence which will lead to a long-term recovery. This is despite short-term pain and embarrassment. All governments can learn a lesson from this, but Beijing has yet to learn it. It may very well be that Wuhan, as ground zero for the Coronavirus, never recovers. The headlines today paint Wuhan as a pariah city, in a wartime battle and in lockdown. The Chinese Chernobyl. These characterizations will not be easily shed. Wuhan, as the capital of Hubei province, has positioned itself as a foreign investment hub and has developed trade, manufacturing and export and development zones to highlight its growth and position within China. Companies will have to assess whether or not their investments should remain in Wuhan or be moved.
Considering China’s impact on the world economy, China will not be off limits to future investment forever. Instead, there will be wariness and unbridled caution for the foreseeable future. Businesses will seek alternatives to avoid commercial and liability issues.
In the best case, returning to normal is not a reasonable expectation in the short term. In the long term, China must take all steps necessary to demonstrate its commitment to transparency regarding all factors relating to the virus. In today’s economy, there are many alternatives for trade and investment and China must recognize that its global trade partners need regular and repeated reassurances. Additionally, China will need to inject substantial financial incentives into the economy to balance against commercial and optical risks.
In the best of circumstances, this process will take six to nine months to see the way forward to a stable and commercially feasible reintroduction of business, confidence and renewed investment. This will require unrelenting adjustments as events require. There is no single action or vaccine that will erase the impact of the coronavirus. A group of actions are needed to restore the zeal and excitement for consumer, business, investment and tourism.
Anything less will create a lingering atmosphere of caution and distrust.
Source: CNBC
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Saturday, 15 February 20
CHEN ZHIDA: NOVEL CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR CHARTERPARTIES - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Last month, the Club issued a bulletin on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) which explained the origin of the virus a ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
AFRAMAX: A MORE POSITIVE ATTITUDE EXISTED IN THIS SECTOR WITH RATES IMPROVING ON ALL ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
VLCC
The market in the Middle East was unmoved this week, with Chinese refiners continuing to slow imports, allied with the impact of the Coron ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
A 56,000DWT VESSEL WAS CONCLUDED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Riding the downward momentum of the previous week, the market was always going to be hard pressed to make any sort of revival. With mu ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION WILL TOTAL 595 MMST IN 2020, DOWN 14% FROM 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019.
Lower ...
Friday, 14 February 20
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.275 MILLION TONS OF MIN. 5,600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co. Ltd (KOWEPO). as a representative of five Korean Gencos has issued an international tender for total 1,275,00 ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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