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Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
 Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between China and the West — and China and the U.S., in particular. However, there are far-reaching effects that have not been contemplated fully beyond the intuitive assessment.
Things move slowly. China has long been known as a country with patience, which in business language translates to longer lead times in the transactional arena, sometimes exhaustive negotiations, and relationships are built over time. Many of these relationships are created in the environment of trade shows, conferences, information exchange platforms, and trade delegations. China has finely tuned this method of cross-border introductions and it is a continuous process.
Combined with this is the growth of the multinational business presence in China. Major retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, biotech, automotive and other sectors are firmly planted in China with technology and personnel. Now, with the essentially closed border with China, the rest of the world waits and watches. To the business community, this is unsettling, to say the least, because there is no accurate predictor of when a vaccine may be found or when the world threat eradicated. Even when those pronouncements are ultimately made by Beijing there is the inherent distrust of information disseminated by the Chinese government.
So what does all of this mean for cross-border business in the short and long term?
An aerial view reveals that the movement of people and technology and deal closure have simply come to a halt. When the Chinese government, or other governments, or the WHO pronounce that it is safe to travel to China again, that will not be the end of it. There has been a worldwide reaction to the scare. The tradeshow and related cancellations have occurred not only in China but throughout Asia and into Europe. Therefore, a wide swath of activities are upended across all business sectors.
The rate of new cases slowed on Wednesday. As of this writing, there have been more than 45,000 cases of Covid-19 and over 1,100 deaths. Businesses from cruise ships to luxury brands and air travel, as well as global markets like oil, have all been hit. There can be no question that it will be a slow and painful process moving back to normalcy. Professional offices remain closed indefinitely, and 90% of businesses are closed or at dramatically reduced hours. Theaters, factories and others where people congregate are closed.
We are all familiar with the recent comparisons of coronavirus with SARS, but there is no real comparison. SARS was perceived as essentially a Hong Kong-centric event and everyone wondered if that would be the death of the HK economy, coming a few years after the handover. Moreover, social media and its impact on global interaction were just launching, and China’s interaction with the world economy was in its infancy.
Transparency will be the key to short term confidence which will lead to a long-term recovery. This is despite short-term pain and embarrassment. All governments can learn a lesson from this, but Beijing has yet to learn it. It may very well be that Wuhan, as ground zero for the Coronavirus, never recovers. The headlines today paint Wuhan as a pariah city, in a wartime battle and in lockdown. The Chinese Chernobyl. These characterizations will not be easily shed. Wuhan, as the capital of Hubei province, has positioned itself as a foreign investment hub and has developed trade, manufacturing and export and development zones to highlight its growth and position within China. Companies will have to assess whether or not their investments should remain in Wuhan or be moved.
Considering China’s impact on the world economy, China will not be off limits to future investment forever. Instead, there will be wariness and unbridled caution for the foreseeable future. Businesses will seek alternatives to avoid commercial and liability issues.
In the best case, returning to normal is not a reasonable expectation in the short term. In the long term, China must take all steps necessary to demonstrate its commitment to transparency regarding all factors relating to the virus. In today’s economy, there are many alternatives for trade and investment and China must recognize that its global trade partners need regular and repeated reassurances. Additionally, China will need to inject substantial financial incentives into the economy to balance against commercial and optical risks.
In the best of circumstances, this process will take six to nine months to see the way forward to a stable and commercially feasible reintroduction of business, confidence and renewed investment. This will require unrelenting adjustments as events require. There is no single action or vaccine that will erase the impact of the coronavirus. A group of actions are needed to restore the zeal and excitement for consumer, business, investment and tourism.
Anything less will create a lingering atmosphere of caution and distrust.
Source: CNBC
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Monday, 24 February 20
CHINA SAYS MAJOR COAL FIRMS RESTORE 95% OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY - REUTERS
China’s coal companies controlled by the central government have resumed operations and are back at more than 95% of their capacity, an offic ...
Sunday, 23 February 20
SHIPPING INDUSTRY FACES $370 MILLION HIT FROM NEW PANAMA CANAL CHARGE - REUTERS
A new “freshwater” charge that came in this month to help the Panama Canal cope with climate change will cost the shipping industry up ...
Sunday, 23 February 20
A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY CJK, AT $7,600 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market found little to cheer about this week as it again endured remarkable lows. The Atlantic continued to improve, with ...
Saturday, 22 February 20
THE SURPRISING MOVE IN MARINE FUEL SPREADS - ING
Middle distillates tank
One of the biggest surprises since the implementation of new International Maritime Organization (IMO) sulphur regulati ...
Friday, 21 February 20
CAPE: AVERAGE NOMINAL DAILY EARNINGS STILL ADMITTEDLY UNCHANGED W-O-W AT BELOW US$3000 - FEARNLEYS
CAPE
The worst may just about be over for the big ships. Average nominal daily earnings still admittedly unchanged w-o-w at below US$3k, but sent ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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