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Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
 Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between China and the West — and China and the U.S., in particular. However, there are far-reaching effects that have not been contemplated fully beyond the intuitive assessment.
Things move slowly. China has long been known as a country with patience, which in business language translates to longer lead times in the transactional arena, sometimes exhaustive negotiations, and relationships are built over time. Many of these relationships are created in the environment of trade shows, conferences, information exchange platforms, and trade delegations. China has finely tuned this method of cross-border introductions and it is a continuous process.
Combined with this is the growth of the multinational business presence in China. Major retailers, manufacturers, pharmaceuticals, biotech, automotive and other sectors are firmly planted in China with technology and personnel. Now, with the essentially closed border with China, the rest of the world waits and watches. To the business community, this is unsettling, to say the least, because there is no accurate predictor of when a vaccine may be found or when the world threat eradicated. Even when those pronouncements are ultimately made by Beijing there is the inherent distrust of information disseminated by the Chinese government.
So what does all of this mean for cross-border business in the short and long term?
An aerial view reveals that the movement of people and technology and deal closure have simply come to a halt. When the Chinese government, or other governments, or the WHO pronounce that it is safe to travel to China again, that will not be the end of it. There has been a worldwide reaction to the scare. The tradeshow and related cancellations have occurred not only in China but throughout Asia and into Europe. Therefore, a wide swath of activities are upended across all business sectors.
The rate of new cases slowed on Wednesday. As of this writing, there have been more than 45,000 cases of Covid-19 and over 1,100 deaths. Businesses from cruise ships to luxury brands and air travel, as well as global markets like oil, have all been hit. There can be no question that it will be a slow and painful process moving back to normalcy. Professional offices remain closed indefinitely, and 90% of businesses are closed or at dramatically reduced hours. Theaters, factories and others where people congregate are closed.
We are all familiar with the recent comparisons of coronavirus with SARS, but there is no real comparison. SARS was perceived as essentially a Hong Kong-centric event and everyone wondered if that would be the death of the HK economy, coming a few years after the handover. Moreover, social media and its impact on global interaction were just launching, and China’s interaction with the world economy was in its infancy.
Transparency will be the key to short term confidence which will lead to a long-term recovery. This is despite short-term pain and embarrassment. All governments can learn a lesson from this, but Beijing has yet to learn it. It may very well be that Wuhan, as ground zero for the Coronavirus, never recovers. The headlines today paint Wuhan as a pariah city, in a wartime battle and in lockdown. The Chinese Chernobyl. These characterizations will not be easily shed. Wuhan, as the capital of Hubei province, has positioned itself as a foreign investment hub and has developed trade, manufacturing and export and development zones to highlight its growth and position within China. Companies will have to assess whether or not their investments should remain in Wuhan or be moved.
Considering China’s impact on the world economy, China will not be off limits to future investment forever. Instead, there will be wariness and unbridled caution for the foreseeable future. Businesses will seek alternatives to avoid commercial and liability issues.
In the best case, returning to normal is not a reasonable expectation in the short term. In the long term, China must take all steps necessary to demonstrate its commitment to transparency regarding all factors relating to the virus. In today’s economy, there are many alternatives for trade and investment and China must recognize that its global trade partners need regular and repeated reassurances. Additionally, China will need to inject substantial financial incentives into the economy to balance against commercial and optical risks.
In the best of circumstances, this process will take six to nine months to see the way forward to a stable and commercially feasible reintroduction of business, confidence and renewed investment. This will require unrelenting adjustments as events require. There is no single action or vaccine that will erase the impact of the coronavirus. A group of actions are needed to restore the zeal and excitement for consumer, business, investment and tourism.
Anything less will create a lingering atmosphere of caution and distrust.
Source: CNBC
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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