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Saturday, 17 October 09
US COAL MINERS LOOKING AT LOWER PROFITS
 Most US coal miners are looking at sharply lower third-quarter earnings, but those that produce coal for steelmaking and export should enjoy higher prices in the longer run than those that sell coal for power generation, analysts say.
Last year's economic downturn hit both steel and electricity demand hard and miners were forced to cut back on production as coal prices slumped. But now there are signs that coal demand, at least from steelmakers, is coming back.
"We generally favor coal producers with international leverage, especially those tied to steel production via metallurgical coal, over thermal coal producers," analyst Jeremy Sussman of Brean Murray, Carret & Co said on Thursday.
And Morgan Stanley's Mark Liinamaa and Wes Sconce said they expected premium hard metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking to be selling at $160 per tonne in 2010, with prices trending higher through 2013. In June, the benchmark price for coking coal was $129 per tonne.
"Our commodity team sees higher seaborne thermal coal prices going forward but we do not expect demand for U.S. thermal coal exports for the next 12-18 months," the Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note.
In afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, the S&P index of coal stocks .GSPCOAL was down 1,2 percent, with Alpha Natural Resources the biggest loser, down 3 percent at $37,61. Consol Energy fell 2.4 percent to $49,76, Massey Energy fell 1,4 percent to $32,89, Peabody Energy was down 1,3 percent at $41,69 and Arch Coal was off 11 cents at $23,94.
This week, Dahlman Rose & Co downgraded Peabody, Arch and James River Coal to "hold" from "buy," saying the weak outlook for thermal coal does not support current valuations.
Peabody kicks off the earnings season for coal miners next Tuesday, followed by Arch, Consol Energy, Massey Energy and Alpha Natural Resources.
Of those producers, only Consol is seen posting a profit bigger than in the 2008 quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Analysts on average expect Consol's earnings to be 66 cents per share, compared with 49 cents a year earlier.
"Consol has one big met mine (Buchanan, in Virginia) and we expect it to do better than expected as there has been a lot of spot demand from China," said Sussman.
He said Arch had the least metallurgical coal of the major miners and analysts currently expect its profit to be 4 cents per share, way off last year's 68 cents.
Peabody produces coking coal at its Australian mines, but analysts expect a big drop in third-quarter profit from $1,38 per share to 22 cents. Earnings of Massey, which has about 25 percent metallurgical coal, are expected to drop to 18 cents per share from 86 cents a year ago and Alpha's profit is expected to drop to 39 cents from 90 cents a year earlier.
Sussman said lower electricity demand from industry since last year's economic downturn has hurt coal miners that produce thermal or steam coal, which is burned in power plants.
"Inventory levels at utilities are still way too high (70 days, or 50 percent above average) for thermal coal producers to speak positively about the thermal coal market," he said.
According to Edison Electric Institute, for the 52 weeks ended Oct. 10, U.S. power production was down 3.4 percent from the corresponding period in 2008.
"On the other hand, there have been a number of recent positive data points in the met coal space, which should help met coal producers' earnings," said Sussman.
He noted China imported about 8.7 million tonnes of met coal during the third quarter, 30 percent more than in all of 2008. Also, Australia has slowed shipments to China recently and the United States appears to be picking up some of the slack.
"U.S. met coal companies should see a meaningful pickup in activity levels in the second half of the year versus the first half," said Sussman.
Morgan Stanley's analysts said investors seeking exposure to the coking coal upside might consider Cliffs Natural Resources, an iron ore pellet producer, which also operates some coal mines.
"Cliffs' U.S. coking coal mines can grow to 4,5 million tons by 2011, ahead of the market's 3,5 million-ton outlook," Liinamaa and Sconce wrote. Analysts expect Cliffs to report a 6-cent loss in the third quarter, after a $2,13 per-share profit a year ago.
Source: Mining Weekly, Reuters
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Wednesday, 11 November 09
INDIAN COAL IMPORT FROM SA IN OCTOBER
Reuters reported that India imported 2.4 million tonnes of coal from South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal in October 2009, 35% of the total of ...
Wednesday, 11 November 09
INDONESIA ASKS DOMESTIC COAL FIRMS TO SET ASIDE 30PCT OF OUTPUT
Indonesian government said that it had asked domestic coal producers to set aside 30% of their output next year to meet demand from new coal fired p ...
Wednesday, 11 November 09
MINING ACQUISITIONS BECOMING MORE STRATEGIC - E&Y
Mining Weekly reported that, Although miners around the world are looking to position themselves for growth, companies are being more selective when ...
Tuesday, 10 November 09
THAI COAL MINER BANPU Q3 NET UP, BEATS FORECAST
Reuters reported that, Thailand's top coal miner, Banpu, said on Tuesday its third-quarter net earnings rose a higher-than-expected 22 percent, hel ...
Monday, 09 November 09
NAPOCOR DEFERS 50,000 T COAL TENDER
Top Philippine electricity producer National Power Corp. (Napocor) has indefinitely postponed a tender for supply of 50,000 tons of steam coal sched ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
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