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Thursday, 06 February 20
CAPE: WEAK SUPPLY/DEMAND RATIO THE STREETS REMAIN BLOODY FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
FearnleysCape: With still a weak supply/demand ratio the streets remain bloody for the big ships, and actual spot earnings are close to zero on main short-haul trades, said Fearnleys in its latest report. 
 
The report further said, Index is in negative territory since days, and values have lost a further 30 pct w-o-w to come in at USD 3k/day - still overrated. Ever more ships idle or anchor up in the Far East, whilst the milk route Waust/China appears to bottom out at just south of USD 6.00/mt, and Pacific rounds at a corresponding touch over USD 1k/day. 
 
Question is for how long there will be head-owned tonnage willing to continue trading, and subsequently how strong/fast the awaited recovery. Period activity is high, but for obvious reasons centered around floating rates, exception including 175,000 dwt, built 2011, delivering China 7-10 Feb for about 12 months at USD 13,500/day.
 
Panamax: Commenting on Panamax, Fearnleys  noted that, the negative sentiment is continuing downwards in the aftermath of Chinese New Year, with the Corona Virus also causing uncertainty going forward. Owners have started putting their vessels at anchor as it is becoming the more sensible option to ballasting. For a transatlantic trip, Kamsarmaxes (82,500 dwt) now earn around the low USD 3,000's, while short front hauls from the UK/Continent-region are priced at around USD 12,000. 
 
From ECSA, Fearnleys says,  charters are paying around USD 12,000 + 200,000 gross ballast bonus for a trip to China, or around USD 6,000 DOP Singapore. A transpacific round voyage in the East pay ship-owners around USD 3,000 in the current market, and the Baltic 4TC-Index is down 107 points since last week, now at 520 points.
 
Supramax: Activity has increased the last week as players are slowly returning to work after holidays in China. However, levels remain unchanged with round trips in the East calculating below OPEX. However, on an encouraging note this year has started well on the demand side, as shipment volumes the first four weeks of the year are 11.5% higher than the same period last year.


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