We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 15 January 20
PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: 'SLOWBALISATION" IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION - PWC
 Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we assess will likely prevail in the global economy in 2020.
Trading goods across borders will likely remain tense…: A defining feature of the global economy since at least the 1970’s has been globalisation—the bringing together of economies predominantly via more liberal trade flows. The global volume of merchandise traded slowed down dramatically and even went in reverse in 2019 in contrast to a 21st century average growth rate of about 3.4% per annum*. Also, in December 2019 the World Trade Organization’s (“WTO”) dispute settlement mechanism was effectively disbanded. We expect this trend to continue in 2020 and for trade tensions in the global goods market to persist. This means that we assess globalisation is likely give way to ‘slowbalisation’ i.e. continued integration of the global economy via trade, financial and other flows but albeit at a significantly slower pace. Large businesses with sophisticated supply chains spread across the world should therefore plan for a variety of scenarios, some of which have not been experienced in recent history.
…but global services trade expected to hit US$7 trillion: One aspect of trade that is often neglected is trade in services, which is now about one third of the size of the global volume of merchandise trade. In contrast to goods, services remain largely unaffected from tariff wars. The latest 2018 data from the International Trade Centre (“ITC”) shows that the global export of services was worth about US$5.8 trillion, or around 3.5% of global GDP. We expect the total value of services exported to hit a record US$7 trillion by 2020. Assuming historic trends continue, the US and UK are likely to remain the first and second largest exporters of services in the world in US Dollar terms. But in yet another reminder of the shift of the centre of economic power from the West to the East we expect China to overtake France in 2020 and become the world’s fourth largest services exporter.
Global economy is expected to grow at a modest pace: Figure 1 shows that growth in merchandise trade flows and the global economy have been intrinsically linked. In our main scenario for 2020, we expect the global economy to expand at a rate of around 3.2% in purchasing power parity (“PPP”) terms which is below the 21st century average of 3.8% per annum. In our main scenario, we expect all of the major economies to grow, buoyed, in part, by accommodative financial conditions. US economic activity is likely to expand by around 2%, in line with its potential rate. Given the historically low unemployment rate, US employers, however, find it increasingly difficult to hire staff. Across the pond, the Eurozone is expected to grow at approximately half that rate (i.e. around 1%). Germany, and other economies that are sensitive to global trade flows, to become more reliant on household consumption as a source of growth instead of net exports and investment. For Germany, however, this could be challenging as households tend to save more than the European average. In the emerging world, we expect the Chinese economy to expand by less than 6%– but it can still add the equivalent of Saudi Arabia to the world economy in one year. The world’s six other largest emerging economies, including Turkey, should also grow in this scenario, with India leading the way.
Predictions for 2020
More jobs across the board but not necessarily spread equitably
We expect the G7 to continue to create jobs, to the tune of around 2 million. Four out of the five new jobs in the G7 will be created in the US, UK and Japan. As the pool of labour resources in the G7 gradually dries up, we assess earnings should continue their upward trajectory. But in the absence of productivity improvements, corporate profit margins could be squeezed. Similarly, the International Labour Organization (“ILO”) expects the seven largest emerging economies– the E7–to create about 8 million jobs in net terms. There are some exceptions to this– Russia and China are likely to experience a shrinking workforce because of demographic pressures. Finally, the ILO’s employment projections for the G7 show that jobs are likely to be taken up by men and women in equal measure. Within the E7, however, the ILO expects job creations to be less evenly distributed across genders.
India expected to rise in global economic rankings
According to the IMF’s latest estimates, 2019 was the year when India overtook the UK and France to become the fifth largest economy in the world. This is an ongoing process with India likely on current trends to overtake Germany before 2025 and Japan before 2030 to become the world’s largest economy behind China and the US. France and the UK will likely now vie for sixth place in the rankings, with their relative position dependent on the value of the pound against the euro which may remain volatile in 2020.
Germany may need to choose between ‘lower for longer’ interest rates or higher fiscal spending
The US is expected to run a US$1.2 trillion government deficit. The Eurozone, which is about the same size as the US economy will run a government deficit about 1/10 the size of the US. In fact, we expect almost half of the Eurozone member states to run a government budget surplus in 2020. Cyprus, Luxembourg and Germany are expected to run the largest surplus relative to their economic size while France and Italy are expected to be on the opposite end of the spectrum with continuing budget deficits. Germany is likely to come under renewed pressure to either increase its government spending or accept ‘lower for longer’ interest rates (see Figure 3). Further afield, of the Gulf Cooperation Council (“GCC”) countries, we only expect Qatar to run a government surplus in 2020. This could mean more policy action in the future to balance government budgets across the GCC.
US oil production expected to hit record levels
Global renewable energy and nuclear consumption will likely make up more than 20% of global energy consumption, which is the highest it has ever been. The rise of renewable energy reflects how businesses, households and governments are adapting and changing their attitudes. China is expected to be the largest consumer of this type of energy closely followed by Europe. However, oil is expected to continue to remain the most preferred source of energy in 2020 for the world economy followed by coal and natural gas. The US and China will almost certainly remain the largest consumers of oil in the world in 2020. In so far as the extraction and supply of oil (and other liquid forms of energy) is concerned the US may surpass the monthly 13 million barrels per day (“b/d”) threshold. To set into context, in the US crude oil was extracted at a rate of 5.5 million b/d 10 years ago.
Global population biggest it has ever been but also the greyest
According to the United Nations (“UN”), In 2020, the world’s population is expected to reach 7.7 billion, which is around a 10% increase compared to a decade ago. China, India and SubSaharan Africa are expected to drive around half of the world’s annual population increase. At the same time, the number of people above the age of 60 globally is expected to surpass the one billion mark. China is expected to have a larger number of people above the age of 65 than all the six other largest emerging economies put together. This calls into question how policymakers respond to this trend and fund future health and social care. This could also be an opportunity for businesses in advanced economies, who have been dealing with such issues for decades. In relative terms i.e. the proportion of people above the age of 65 relative to the country’s entire population, Japan is expected to remain the ‘greyest’ country in the world and Niger is expected to be the youngest.
Source: PWC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
|
|
|
Showing 31 to 35 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
|
| |
| |
|
