We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 15 January 20
PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: 'SLOWBALISATION" IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION - PWC
 Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we assess will likely prevail in the global economy in 2020.
Trading goods across borders will likely remain tense…: A defining feature of the global economy since at least the 1970’s has been globalisation—the bringing together of economies predominantly via more liberal trade flows. The global volume of merchandise traded slowed down dramatically and even went in reverse in 2019 in contrast to a 21st century average growth rate of about 3.4% per annum*. Also, in December 2019 the World Trade Organization’s (“WTO”) dispute settlement mechanism was effectively disbanded. We expect this trend to continue in 2020 and for trade tensions in the global goods market to persist. This means that we assess globalisation is likely give way to ‘slowbalisation’ i.e. continued integration of the global economy via trade, financial and other flows but albeit at a significantly slower pace. Large businesses with sophisticated supply chains spread across the world should therefore plan for a variety of scenarios, some of which have not been experienced in recent history.
…but global services trade expected to hit US$7 trillion: One aspect of trade that is often neglected is trade in services, which is now about one third of the size of the global volume of merchandise trade. In contrast to goods, services remain largely unaffected from tariff wars. The latest 2018 data from the International Trade Centre (“ITC”) shows that the global export of services was worth about US$5.8 trillion, or around 3.5% of global GDP. We expect the total value of services exported to hit a record US$7 trillion by 2020. Assuming historic trends continue, the US and UK are likely to remain the first and second largest exporters of services in the world in US Dollar terms. But in yet another reminder of the shift of the centre of economic power from the West to the East we expect China to overtake France in 2020 and become the world’s fourth largest services exporter.
Global economy is expected to grow at a modest pace: Figure 1 shows that growth in merchandise trade flows and the global economy have been intrinsically linked. In our main scenario for 2020, we expect the global economy to expand at a rate of around 3.2% in purchasing power parity (“PPP”) terms which is below the 21st century average of 3.8% per annum. In our main scenario, we expect all of the major economies to grow, buoyed, in part, by accommodative financial conditions. US economic activity is likely to expand by around 2%, in line with its potential rate. Given the historically low unemployment rate, US employers, however, find it increasingly difficult to hire staff. Across the pond, the Eurozone is expected to grow at approximately half that rate (i.e. around 1%). Germany, and other economies that are sensitive to global trade flows, to become more reliant on household consumption as a source of growth instead of net exports and investment. For Germany, however, this could be challenging as households tend to save more than the European average. In the emerging world, we expect the Chinese economy to expand by less than 6%– but it can still add the equivalent of Saudi Arabia to the world economy in one year. The world’s six other largest emerging economies, including Turkey, should also grow in this scenario, with India leading the way.
Predictions for 2020
More jobs across the board but not necessarily spread equitably
We expect the G7 to continue to create jobs, to the tune of around 2 million. Four out of the five new jobs in the G7 will be created in the US, UK and Japan. As the pool of labour resources in the G7 gradually dries up, we assess earnings should continue their upward trajectory. But in the absence of productivity improvements, corporate profit margins could be squeezed. Similarly, the International Labour Organization (“ILO”) expects the seven largest emerging economies– the E7–to create about 8 million jobs in net terms. There are some exceptions to this– Russia and China are likely to experience a shrinking workforce because of demographic pressures. Finally, the ILO’s employment projections for the G7 show that jobs are likely to be taken up by men and women in equal measure. Within the E7, however, the ILO expects job creations to be less evenly distributed across genders.
India expected to rise in global economic rankings
According to the IMF’s latest estimates, 2019 was the year when India overtook the UK and France to become the fifth largest economy in the world. This is an ongoing process with India likely on current trends to overtake Germany before 2025 and Japan before 2030 to become the world’s largest economy behind China and the US. France and the UK will likely now vie for sixth place in the rankings, with their relative position dependent on the value of the pound against the euro which may remain volatile in 2020.
Germany may need to choose between ‘lower for longer’ interest rates or higher fiscal spending
The US is expected to run a US$1.2 trillion government deficit. The Eurozone, which is about the same size as the US economy will run a government deficit about 1/10 the size of the US. In fact, we expect almost half of the Eurozone member states to run a government budget surplus in 2020. Cyprus, Luxembourg and Germany are expected to run the largest surplus relative to their economic size while France and Italy are expected to be on the opposite end of the spectrum with continuing budget deficits. Germany is likely to come under renewed pressure to either increase its government spending or accept ‘lower for longer’ interest rates (see Figure 3). Further afield, of the Gulf Cooperation Council (“GCC”) countries, we only expect Qatar to run a government surplus in 2020. This could mean more policy action in the future to balance government budgets across the GCC.
US oil production expected to hit record levels
Global renewable energy and nuclear consumption will likely make up more than 20% of global energy consumption, which is the highest it has ever been. The rise of renewable energy reflects how businesses, households and governments are adapting and changing their attitudes. China is expected to be the largest consumer of this type of energy closely followed by Europe. However, oil is expected to continue to remain the most preferred source of energy in 2020 for the world economy followed by coal and natural gas. The US and China will almost certainly remain the largest consumers of oil in the world in 2020. In so far as the extraction and supply of oil (and other liquid forms of energy) is concerned the US may surpass the monthly 13 million barrels per day (“b/d”) threshold. To set into context, in the US crude oil was extracted at a rate of 5.5 million b/d 10 years ago.
Global population biggest it has ever been but also the greyest
According to the United Nations (“UN”), In 2020, the world’s population is expected to reach 7.7 billion, which is around a 10% increase compared to a decade ago. China, India and SubSaharan Africa are expected to drive around half of the world’s annual population increase. At the same time, the number of people above the age of 60 globally is expected to surpass the one billion mark. China is expected to have a larger number of people above the age of 65 than all the six other largest emerging economies put together. This calls into question how policymakers respond to this trend and fund future health and social care. This could also be an opportunity for businesses in advanced economies, who have been dealing with such issues for decades. In relative terms i.e. the proportion of people above the age of 65 relative to the country’s entire population, Japan is expected to remain the ‘greyest’ country in the world and Niger is expected to be the youngest.
Source: PWC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 28 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasing ...
Saturday, 28 December 19
CHINESE INDUSTRIAL CITY TO FURTHER CUT COAL CONSUMPTION - XINHUA
Harbin, capital city of Heilongjiang Province in China’s northeastern industrial heartland, is planning to further reduce its coal consumptio ...
Friday, 27 December 19
MISERY LOOMS OVER TOP COAL SHIPPERS AS CHINA TO BUY LESS IN 2020 BLOOMBERG
China isn’t cutting back on consumption of the most-polluting fossil fuel just yet, but it is set to reduce imports.
The world ...
Thursday, 26 December 19
REVIEW OF 2019 AND OUTLOOK FOR 2020 - OPEC
Global economic growth slowed in 2019, impacted by a variety of challenges. Trade issues not only led to reduction in global final consumption but ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
COVER FOR WAR AND TERRORISM RISKS, AND COVER IN RESPECT OF BIOLOGICAL AND BIO-CHEMICAL WEAPONS - 2020 POLICY YEAR: AMERICAN CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This Circular describes the arrangements which have been made to provide special cover for war and terrorism risks, and c ...
|
|
|
Showing 1221 to 1225 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
