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Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and irregular on Jan.13:
380 HSFO – USD/MT – 388.82 (+0.72)
VLSFO – USD/MT – 660.00 (-1.00)
MGO – USD/MT – 702.06 (+0.75)
Meantime, world oil indexes fell on Jan.13 as investors shifted their focus away from easing Mideast tensions to this week’s scheduled signing of an initial U.S.-China trade deal.
Brent for March settlement declined by $0.78 to $64.20 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for February fell by $0.96 to $58.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $6.12 to WTI. Gasoil for February delivery lost $16.75.
Today morning global oil indexes do not have any firm trend.
It is expected that the U.S. and China agreement is already largely discounted in the price level, and is unlikely to provide a strong boost to oil prices. A U.S.-China trade deal is due to be signed in Washington on Jan.15. The Trump administration has invited at least 200 people to a ceremony for the signing, but the two nations have not yet finalised details of what will be signed.
This year, Chinese crude oil demand growth could be just half of the estimated growth for 2019, and the lowest growth pace since the financial crisis in 2008. Apparent demand for oil in China—calculated by adding domestic production to net imports and changes to inventories—is set to increase by just 2.4 percent in 2020, less than half the 5.2-percent growth estimated for 2019. the impact of the U.S.-China trade war will continue to be felt in the Chinese economy, whose growth will linger at 6 percent.
Last week, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to curb U.S. President Donald Trump’s power to strike Iran. Meanwhile, in comments to Fox News, Vice President Mike Pence said the Islamic Republic has asked militias in the Middle East not to carry out attacks against U.S. interests. The situation in Iran remained volatile, however, as its citizens protested after the government admitted on Jan.11 that it had mistakenly show down a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 people on board. Iran’s government said it was forming a working group to probe the crash and compensate victims.
OPEC not only continued to cut its crude oil production in December 2019, but it also managed to reach its deeper-cut target for Q1 2020 a month earlier than planned. As in all previous months, Saudi Arabia overcomplied significantly with its share of the cuts, helping the cartel achieve the new quota effective January a month early (Saudi Arabia’s December oil production was 9.82 million bpd: a way below the December quota of 10.3 million bpd. The Saudis were still compensating for rogue OPEC members Iraq and Nigeria, which, despite cutting their respective production, were still not complying with their December quotas. OPEC’s total crude oil production stood at 29.55 million bpd in December, down by 100,000 bpd compared to November.
Rystad Energy continues to see a downward risk to prices, with further pressure on OPEC to implement even deeper production cuts in order to keep Brent oil prices around $60 per barrel through 2020. Oil prices still react dramatically to news of tensions in the Persian Gulf, although less dramatically now than they would have before the US shale revolution. The importance of the region for oil markets is obvious, given that seven Gulf countries alone – Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Oman and Qatar – produced around 24 million bpd of crude oil in December 2019. Rystad Energy forecasts that the ‘call’ on OPEC will average about 28.3 million bpd during the final nine months of 2020. By comparison, OPECs actual production in December 2019 was 29.6 million bpd, and the cartel’s new implied production target for the first quarter of 2020 is 29.2 million bpd.
The Chinese Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) has rooted out two cases of ships using fuel that did not comply with the new IMO 2020 regulations. In statement issued on 10 January, the Standard Club revealed that it had received reports about the incidents. In one case, the ship was under a Port State Control inspection in Qingdao when the MSA verified the use of fuel oil with a sulphur content of .6777% mm. The MSA also found that a ship berthed in Xiamen has been burning non-compliant fuel. The ship had been at berth nearly six days after changing over to compliant fuel – and it is likely that previous high sulphur fuel residue remained in the engine fuel system resulting in emissions over the China ECA limit. It is ‘not clear yet whether the MSA will fine the ships for the IMO 2020 violations.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said, by 2040, India’s oil consumption is set to increase at the fastest pace than any major economy in the world as the country is becoming increasingly influential in global energy markets. Currently, India is the world’s third largest consumer of oil, the fourth largest oil refiner, and a net exporter of refined products. India’s oil demand growth rate is expected to surpass the growth pace of China in the middle of the 2020s, making India a very attractive market for refinery investment. Besides, India’s oil import dependency is set to rise significantly in coming decades, from an already high dependency of over 80 percent in 2018.
We expect bunker prices may go down today in a range of minus 3-6 USD for IFO and minus 9-15 USD for MGO.
Source: MABUX
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
VLCC
Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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