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Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and irregular on Jan.13:
380 HSFO – USD/MT – 388.82 (+0.72)
VLSFO – USD/MT – 660.00 (-1.00)
MGO – USD/MT – 702.06 (+0.75)
Meantime, world oil indexes fell on Jan.13 as investors shifted their focus away from easing Mideast tensions to this week’s scheduled signing of an initial U.S.-China trade deal.
Brent for March settlement declined by $0.78 to $64.20 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for February fell by $0.96 to $58.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $6.12 to WTI. Gasoil for February delivery lost $16.75.
Today morning global oil indexes do not have any firm trend.
It is expected that the U.S. and China agreement is already largely discounted in the price level, and is unlikely to provide a strong boost to oil prices. A U.S.-China trade deal is due to be signed in Washington on Jan.15. The Trump administration has invited at least 200 people to a ceremony for the signing, but the two nations have not yet finalised details of what will be signed.
This year, Chinese crude oil demand growth could be just half of the estimated growth for 2019, and the lowest growth pace since the financial crisis in 2008. Apparent demand for oil in China—calculated by adding domestic production to net imports and changes to inventories—is set to increase by just 2.4 percent in 2020, less than half the 5.2-percent growth estimated for 2019. the impact of the U.S.-China trade war will continue to be felt in the Chinese economy, whose growth will linger at 6 percent.
Last week, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to curb U.S. President Donald Trump’s power to strike Iran. Meanwhile, in comments to Fox News, Vice President Mike Pence said the Islamic Republic has asked militias in the Middle East not to carry out attacks against U.S. interests. The situation in Iran remained volatile, however, as its citizens protested after the government admitted on Jan.11 that it had mistakenly show down a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 people on board. Iran’s government said it was forming a working group to probe the crash and compensate victims.
OPEC not only continued to cut its crude oil production in December 2019, but it also managed to reach its deeper-cut target for Q1 2020 a month earlier than planned. As in all previous months, Saudi Arabia overcomplied significantly with its share of the cuts, helping the cartel achieve the new quota effective January a month early (Saudi Arabia’s December oil production was 9.82 million bpd: a way below the December quota of 10.3 million bpd. The Saudis were still compensating for rogue OPEC members Iraq and Nigeria, which, despite cutting their respective production, were still not complying with their December quotas. OPEC’s total crude oil production stood at 29.55 million bpd in December, down by 100,000 bpd compared to November.
Rystad Energy continues to see a downward risk to prices, with further pressure on OPEC to implement even deeper production cuts in order to keep Brent oil prices around $60 per barrel through 2020. Oil prices still react dramatically to news of tensions in the Persian Gulf, although less dramatically now than they would have before the US shale revolution. The importance of the region for oil markets is obvious, given that seven Gulf countries alone – Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Oman and Qatar – produced around 24 million bpd of crude oil in December 2019. Rystad Energy forecasts that the ‘call’ on OPEC will average about 28.3 million bpd during the final nine months of 2020. By comparison, OPECs actual production in December 2019 was 29.6 million bpd, and the cartel’s new implied production target for the first quarter of 2020 is 29.2 million bpd.
The Chinese Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) has rooted out two cases of ships using fuel that did not comply with the new IMO 2020 regulations. In statement issued on 10 January, the Standard Club revealed that it had received reports about the incidents. In one case, the ship was under a Port State Control inspection in Qingdao when the MSA verified the use of fuel oil with a sulphur content of .6777% mm. The MSA also found that a ship berthed in Xiamen has been burning non-compliant fuel. The ship had been at berth nearly six days after changing over to compliant fuel – and it is likely that previous high sulphur fuel residue remained in the engine fuel system resulting in emissions over the China ECA limit. It is ‘not clear yet whether the MSA will fine the ships for the IMO 2020 violations.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said, by 2040, India’s oil consumption is set to increase at the fastest pace than any major economy in the world as the country is becoming increasingly influential in global energy markets. Currently, India is the world’s third largest consumer of oil, the fourth largest oil refiner, and a net exporter of refined products. India’s oil demand growth rate is expected to surpass the growth pace of China in the middle of the 2020s, making India a very attractive market for refinery investment. Besides, India’s oil import dependency is set to rise significantly in coming decades, from an already high dependency of over 80 percent in 2018.
We expect bunker prices may go down today in a range of minus 3-6 USD for IFO and minus 9-15 USD for MGO.
Source: MABUX
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
VLCC
Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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