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Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and irregular on Jan.13:
380 HSFO – USD/MT – 388.82 (+0.72)
VLSFO – USD/MT – 660.00 (-1.00)
MGO – USD/MT – 702.06 (+0.75)
Meantime, world oil indexes fell on Jan.13 as investors shifted their focus away from easing Mideast tensions to this week’s scheduled signing of an initial U.S.-China trade deal.
Brent for March settlement declined by $0.78 to $64.20 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for February fell by $0.96 to $58.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $6.12 to WTI. Gasoil for February delivery lost $16.75.
Today morning global oil indexes do not have any firm trend.
It is expected that the U.S. and China agreement is already largely discounted in the price level, and is unlikely to provide a strong boost to oil prices. A U.S.-China trade deal is due to be signed in Washington on Jan.15. The Trump administration has invited at least 200 people to a ceremony for the signing, but the two nations have not yet finalised details of what will be signed.
This year, Chinese crude oil demand growth could be just half of the estimated growth for 2019, and the lowest growth pace since the financial crisis in 2008. Apparent demand for oil in China—calculated by adding domestic production to net imports and changes to inventories—is set to increase by just 2.4 percent in 2020, less than half the 5.2-percent growth estimated for 2019. the impact of the U.S.-China trade war will continue to be felt in the Chinese economy, whose growth will linger at 6 percent.
Last week, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to curb U.S. President Donald Trump’s power to strike Iran. Meanwhile, in comments to Fox News, Vice President Mike Pence said the Islamic Republic has asked militias in the Middle East not to carry out attacks against U.S. interests. The situation in Iran remained volatile, however, as its citizens protested after the government admitted on Jan.11 that it had mistakenly show down a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 people on board. Iran’s government said it was forming a working group to probe the crash and compensate victims.
OPEC not only continued to cut its crude oil production in December 2019, but it also managed to reach its deeper-cut target for Q1 2020 a month earlier than planned. As in all previous months, Saudi Arabia overcomplied significantly with its share of the cuts, helping the cartel achieve the new quota effective January a month early (Saudi Arabia’s December oil production was 9.82 million bpd: a way below the December quota of 10.3 million bpd. The Saudis were still compensating for rogue OPEC members Iraq and Nigeria, which, despite cutting their respective production, were still not complying with their December quotas. OPEC’s total crude oil production stood at 29.55 million bpd in December, down by 100,000 bpd compared to November.
Rystad Energy continues to see a downward risk to prices, with further pressure on OPEC to implement even deeper production cuts in order to keep Brent oil prices around $60 per barrel through 2020. Oil prices still react dramatically to news of tensions in the Persian Gulf, although less dramatically now than they would have before the US shale revolution. The importance of the region for oil markets is obvious, given that seven Gulf countries alone – Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Oman and Qatar – produced around 24 million bpd of crude oil in December 2019. Rystad Energy forecasts that the ‘call’ on OPEC will average about 28.3 million bpd during the final nine months of 2020. By comparison, OPECs actual production in December 2019 was 29.6 million bpd, and the cartel’s new implied production target for the first quarter of 2020 is 29.2 million bpd.
The Chinese Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) has rooted out two cases of ships using fuel that did not comply with the new IMO 2020 regulations. In statement issued on 10 January, the Standard Club revealed that it had received reports about the incidents. In one case, the ship was under a Port State Control inspection in Qingdao when the MSA verified the use of fuel oil with a sulphur content of .6777% mm. The MSA also found that a ship berthed in Xiamen has been burning non-compliant fuel. The ship had been at berth nearly six days after changing over to compliant fuel – and it is likely that previous high sulphur fuel residue remained in the engine fuel system resulting in emissions over the China ECA limit. It is ‘not clear yet whether the MSA will fine the ships for the IMO 2020 violations.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said, by 2040, India’s oil consumption is set to increase at the fastest pace than any major economy in the world as the country is becoming increasingly influential in global energy markets. Currently, India is the world’s third largest consumer of oil, the fourth largest oil refiner, and a net exporter of refined products. India’s oil demand growth rate is expected to surpass the growth pace of China in the middle of the 2020s, making India a very attractive market for refinery investment. Besides, India’s oil import dependency is set to rise significantly in coming decades, from an already high dependency of over 80 percent in 2018.
We expect bunker prices may go down today in a range of minus 3-6 USD for IFO and minus 9-15 USD for MGO.
Source: MABUX
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
VLCC
Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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