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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 02 March 18
MORE COAL INQUIRES FROM SOUTH AFRICA TO INDIA; SUPRAS FIXED CA $12K + BB - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Better rates in Atlantic, but not too busy market just yet.
Black Sea catched improving rates for grain cargoes, where supras to Eg ...
Friday, 02 March 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7 PER CENT W/E 24 FEB, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
INDIA: TEPID COAL TRAFFIC TO HIT VOLUME GROWTH AT PORTS TILL 2022 - PTI
Cargo growth at the country’s major ports is all set to moderate to 3-5 per cent per annum over the next five years due to the “sedate ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the Inte ...
Tuesday, 27 February 18
SHELL SEES POTENTIAL LNG SUPPLY SHORTAGE AS GLOBAL DEMAND SURGES
Media Release: The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has continued to defy expectations of many market observers, with demand growing by 29 ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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