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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 01 May 18
GLOBAL MINER PEABODY EYES SALES OPPORTUNITY IN INDIA’S RISING COAL IMPORTS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Indian imports of coal will continue to rise, reckons the world’s largest private sector coal miner Peabody Energy. Glenn Kellow, president a ...
Saturday, 28 April 18
STRONG ASIAN DEMAND CONTINUES TO HOLD UP THERMAL COAL MARKETS - REUTERS
Asian thermal coal demand is defying its typical seasonal slowdown as well as the expanding use of renewables and natural gas, with prices holding ...
Friday, 27 April 18
PEABODY ENERGY'S REVENUES FOR THE FIRST QUARTER ROSE 10 PERCENT OVER THE PRIOR YEAR TO $1.46 BILLION
Peabody Energy's revenues for the first quarter rose 10 percent over the prior year to $1.46 billion driven by improved seaborne coal pricing a ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
BALTIC EXCHANGE LAUNCHES ESCROW SERVICE FOR VESSEL SALES
The Baltic Exchange will be launching an Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions. The move will allow Baltic Exc ...
Thursday, 26 April 18
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE $85/MT IN 2018, DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 2017 - WORLD BANK
Coal prices rose 4 percent in the first quarter (q/q), following a surge of 34 percent in 2017, mainly due to strong consumption in China spurred b ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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