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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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