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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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