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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 25 August 20
INDIA'S IMPORTS FALL AS LOCKDOWNS IMPACT THE POWER AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - REPORT
India is the world’s second largest thermal coal consumer and importer, importing an estimated 211 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019.&nb ...
Monday, 24 August 20
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPMENTS DROVE THE FALLOFF COAL PRICES - CHIEF ECONOMIST’ OFFICE, AUSTRALIA
China, rising domestic production combined with subdued power demand;
India, a lockdown coupled with government directives that fav ...
Monday, 24 August 20
AUSTRALIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM AN ESTIMATED $20 BILLION IN 2019-20 TO $16 BILLION IN 2020-21: REPORT
Thermal coal spot prices have fallen sharply as the impact of COVID-19 drives a contraction in seaborne trade for only the second time this century ...
Saturday, 22 August 20
REPORT SEES INDIA’S RELIANCE ON THERMAL POWER DROPPING TO 50% IN 2021, 43% IN 2026 - ET ENERGY | IEEFA
India’s dependence on thermal power will reduce to 50 per cent by 2021-22 and 43 per cent by 2026-27 on the back of renewable energy (RE) cap ...
Friday, 21 August 20
323 MILLION ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL BE ON THE ROADS BY 2040 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 45 million units per year by 2040, with a total global EV stock of 323 million, according to new ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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