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Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
 Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the US and Iran.These events escalated considerably and once again brought to the forefront the possibility for further geopolitical instability and disruptions to the global economic ecosystem (including along with it the shipping markets). The shockwaves of the increased tensions between the two countries pushed oil price above the US$ 70 per barrel mark, while gold, the safe haven choice for investors, rose to a seven-year high of around US$1,575/oz. The slowdown noted during the last few days though has helped alleviate recent concerns regarding global trade, but nevertheless the initial signals of 2020 are not exactly encouraging.
The risk of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East region has increased since last week, a fact that could generate significant problems for shipping routes from the Middle East Gulf to Europe and Asia. Despite the assurances made by Saudi Arabian= officials that oil production and supply will not encounter any issues, no one can predict with certainty what the next steps by Iran or the U.S. will be. Oil and LNG are the= commodities that are in the highest danger from the recent escalation in the tensions
between Washington and Teheran. It is worth mentioning that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint with the daily trade passing through in 2018 being estimated at 21 million b/d. Iran had in the past threatened to close the passage in case of war in the region. This uncertainty is likely to lead to higher freight rates in the region (possibly with higher risk insurance premiums), but with the impact that a further escalation may have to the global trade being yet difficult to predict.
Putting the Middle East conflict aside, focus is also placed on the continuing trade tension saga between the US and China, with Phase 1 of the trade deal between the two countries expected to be signed later this week. The effect of this deal is questionable, as the 86-page agreement has not yet been made public, with several experts doubting how effective this deal is. Given that China’s growth rate is expected to decelerate even further this year (World Bank estimates a rate of 5.9% for 2020), market participants are waiting on the trade and economic data that China is expected to publish later this week in order to shape a better view as to the prospects of this Asian giant. The impact from the trade conflict were significant last year, with global trade growth being just 1.4%, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis. This year global trade growth is expected to slightly improve but with the rate still remaining at comparatively low levels. Meanwhile, at the end of this month, we also expect Britain to leave the EU, a step that will bring the two on the next phase of the negotiation process where the future trading relationship between the two sides will be discussed. The result of these negotiations and the impact that they may have on the global economy is still fairly sketchy. Furthermore, we must not forget that we have the US presidential elections set to take place this November, the result of which will surely have a long-term impact on the US, as well the global economy.
All in all, global growth forecasts are not so optimistic for 2020, with several investment experts suggesting that the likelihood of recession this year has increased and even if we do not encounter one this year, the growth rate will remain close to the low of 2.3-2.5% that we witnessed last year as well.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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