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Friday, 27 December 19
MISERY LOOMS OVER TOP COAL SHIPPERS AS CHINA TO BUY LESS IN 2020 BLOOMBERG
 China isn’t cutting back on consumption of the most-polluting fossil fuel just yet, but it is set to reduce imports.
The world’s biggest coal buyer will likely purchase less from overseas in 2020 after a boost this year, according to analysts. With domestic production rising to a record and overall demand nearing a plateau, miners from top exporters such as Indonesia and Australia will find themselves squeezed.
China’s coal imports have raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had predicted that the government would strictly clamp down on shipments in the later months just as it did in 2018. With economic growth at its weakest in decades amid a trade war with the U.S., import curbs were eased on the nation’s most-consumed fuel to help mitigate the pain of a slowdown.
Beijing regularly limits coal imports to buttress domestic miners amid a broader campaign to reduce the nation’s reliance on the fuel. Underpinning forecasts for lower imports in 2020 is the outlook for rising domestic supply as China promotes bigger and more efficient mining operations.
“New supply will create a coal glut,” said Michelle Leung, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s likely to cut China’s net imports by 8% in 2020 and hurt profitability of miners in Australia and Indonesia, she added.
China bought 299 million tons of coal for power and steel in the first 11 months, 10% higher than year-ago levels and a record for the period. It’s on course to exceed a 200 million- to 300 million-ton range touted by an industry official as necessary to support domestic miners and maintain balanced trade with exporting nations.
With more local supply to come in 2020, Chinese import controls will be a lasting feature and lead to a 25 million-ton drop in thermal coal purchases next year, Morgan Stanley estimates. The cutback will offset demand growth elsewhere in Asia, and seaborne prices may extend a slump to average $66 a ton from about $79 in 2019, the bank said.
For a country that burns and produces half the world’s coal, the strength of China’s import curbs may vary depending on the government’s competing priorities of protecting domestic miners and power plants. Utilities will face added pressure from January when market reforms are expected to result in lower electricity prices, which may hit their bottom line.
“The government wants to boost the economy any way it can, and a good way to do that is to let generators get the cheapest coal,” said James Stevenson, global director for coal research at IHS Markit Ltd. “At the same time, it doesn’t want imported coal risking domestic mining jobs.”
Market Revamp
Zeng Hao, an analyst at Fenwei Energy Information Services Co., is among the few expecting China to further relax its grip on coal imports in 2020 as policy makers would be disinclined to intervene in “market-based activity” amid the slowing economy, he said.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month expect China’s top leadership to set the target for economic growth at “about 6%” for 2020, which implies a continuation of the growth slowdown. The goal for this year is 6% to 6.5%.
Given the oversupply in China’s coal market, domestic prices are likely to remain at low levels next year, said Zhai Yu, a senior consultant at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. based in Beijing. That will reduce the attractiveness of overseas cargoes.
Spot coal at the main Qinhuangdao port is at a three-year low of 543 yuan a ton. A slide toward 500 yuan could motivate the government to step up restrictions on imports, he said.
Source: Bloomberg
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Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third qu ...
Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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