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Friday, 27 December 19
MISERY LOOMS OVER TOP COAL SHIPPERS AS CHINA TO BUY LESS IN 2020 BLOOMBERG
 China isn’t cutting back on consumption of the most-polluting fossil fuel just yet, but it is set to reduce imports.
The world’s biggest coal buyer will likely purchase less from overseas in 2020 after a boost this year, according to analysts. With domestic production rising to a record and overall demand nearing a plateau, miners from top exporters such as Indonesia and Australia will find themselves squeezed.
China’s coal imports have raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had predicted that the government would strictly clamp down on shipments in the later months just as it did in 2018. With economic growth at its weakest in decades amid a trade war with the U.S., import curbs were eased on the nation’s most-consumed fuel to help mitigate the pain of a slowdown.
Beijing regularly limits coal imports to buttress domestic miners amid a broader campaign to reduce the nation’s reliance on the fuel. Underpinning forecasts for lower imports in 2020 is the outlook for rising domestic supply as China promotes bigger and more efficient mining operations.
“New supply will create a coal glut,” said Michelle Leung, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s likely to cut China’s net imports by 8% in 2020 and hurt profitability of miners in Australia and Indonesia, she added.
China bought 299 million tons of coal for power and steel in the first 11 months, 10% higher than year-ago levels and a record for the period. It’s on course to exceed a 200 million- to 300 million-ton range touted by an industry official as necessary to support domestic miners and maintain balanced trade with exporting nations.
With more local supply to come in 2020, Chinese import controls will be a lasting feature and lead to a 25 million-ton drop in thermal coal purchases next year, Morgan Stanley estimates. The cutback will offset demand growth elsewhere in Asia, and seaborne prices may extend a slump to average $66 a ton from about $79 in 2019, the bank said.
For a country that burns and produces half the world’s coal, the strength of China’s import curbs may vary depending on the government’s competing priorities of protecting domestic miners and power plants. Utilities will face added pressure from January when market reforms are expected to result in lower electricity prices, which may hit their bottom line.
“The government wants to boost the economy any way it can, and a good way to do that is to let generators get the cheapest coal,” said James Stevenson, global director for coal research at IHS Markit Ltd. “At the same time, it doesn’t want imported coal risking domestic mining jobs.”
Market Revamp
Zeng Hao, an analyst at Fenwei Energy Information Services Co., is among the few expecting China to further relax its grip on coal imports in 2020 as policy makers would be disinclined to intervene in “market-based activity” amid the slowing economy, he said.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month expect China’s top leadership to set the target for economic growth at “about 6%” for 2020, which implies a continuation of the growth slowdown. The goal for this year is 6% to 6.5%.
Given the oversupply in China’s coal market, domestic prices are likely to remain at low levels next year, said Zhai Yu, a senior consultant at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. based in Beijing. That will reduce the attractiveness of overseas cargoes.
Spot coal at the main Qinhuangdao port is at a three-year low of 543 yuan a ton. A slide toward 500 yuan could motivate the government to step up restrictions on imports, he said.
Source: Bloomberg
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Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
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Friday, 10 January 20
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Thursday, 09 January 20
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Thursday, 09 January 20
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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