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Friday, 27 December 19
MISERY LOOMS OVER TOP COAL SHIPPERS AS CHINA TO BUY LESS IN 2020 BLOOMBERG
 China isn’t cutting back on consumption of the most-polluting fossil fuel just yet, but it is set to reduce imports.
The world’s biggest coal buyer will likely purchase less from overseas in 2020 after a boost this year, according to analysts. With domestic production rising to a record and overall demand nearing a plateau, miners from top exporters such as Indonesia and Australia will find themselves squeezed.
China’s coal imports have raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had predicted that the government would strictly clamp down on shipments in the later months just as it did in 2018. With economic growth at its weakest in decades amid a trade war with the U.S., import curbs were eased on the nation’s most-consumed fuel to help mitigate the pain of a slowdown.
Beijing regularly limits coal imports to buttress domestic miners amid a broader campaign to reduce the nation’s reliance on the fuel. Underpinning forecasts for lower imports in 2020 is the outlook for rising domestic supply as China promotes bigger and more efficient mining operations.
“New supply will create a coal glut,” said Michelle Leung, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s likely to cut China’s net imports by 8% in 2020 and hurt profitability of miners in Australia and Indonesia, she added.
China bought 299 million tons of coal for power and steel in the first 11 months, 10% higher than year-ago levels and a record for the period. It’s on course to exceed a 200 million- to 300 million-ton range touted by an industry official as necessary to support domestic miners and maintain balanced trade with exporting nations.
With more local supply to come in 2020, Chinese import controls will be a lasting feature and lead to a 25 million-ton drop in thermal coal purchases next year, Morgan Stanley estimates. The cutback will offset demand growth elsewhere in Asia, and seaborne prices may extend a slump to average $66 a ton from about $79 in 2019, the bank said.
For a country that burns and produces half the world’s coal, the strength of China’s import curbs may vary depending on the government’s competing priorities of protecting domestic miners and power plants. Utilities will face added pressure from January when market reforms are expected to result in lower electricity prices, which may hit their bottom line.
“The government wants to boost the economy any way it can, and a good way to do that is to let generators get the cheapest coal,” said James Stevenson, global director for coal research at IHS Markit Ltd. “At the same time, it doesn’t want imported coal risking domestic mining jobs.”
Market Revamp
Zeng Hao, an analyst at Fenwei Energy Information Services Co., is among the few expecting China to further relax its grip on coal imports in 2020 as policy makers would be disinclined to intervene in “market-based activity” amid the slowing economy, he said.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month expect China’s top leadership to set the target for economic growth at “about 6%” for 2020, which implies a continuation of the growth slowdown. The goal for this year is 6% to 6.5%.
Given the oversupply in China’s coal market, domestic prices are likely to remain at low levels next year, said Zhai Yu, a senior consultant at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. based in Beijing. That will reduce the attractiveness of overseas cargoes.
Spot coal at the main Qinhuangdao port is at a three-year low of 543 yuan a ton. A slide toward 500 yuan could motivate the government to step up restrictions on imports, he said.
Source: Bloomberg
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Thursday, 30 January 20
PRIVATE SECTOR COMPANIES SEEK 'LEVEL PLAYING FIELD' FOR COAL BLOCK AUCTION - PTI
Private sector companies scouting opportunities for commercial coal mining in the country are seeking a “level playing field” to encour ...
Thursday, 30 January 20
CAPE: WITH CHINESE NEW YEAR TAKING PLACE, THE RATES ARE REACHING FURTHER DISAPPOINTING LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
With Chinese New Year taking place, the rates are reaching further disappointing levels. Present TC average is below USD 4,500, off 24% fr ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
INDONESIA REMAINS AT THE TOP SPOT IN 2019 AS THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF COAL TO INDIA WITH 91.3 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Despite repeated promises from India’s government to reduce the country’s coal imports and increase domestic self-reliance, volumes jus ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last week Libya’s oil production operations were disrupted as it was reported that local Libyan tribes interrupted output at the the El Feel ...
Tuesday, 28 January 20
INDONESIA - UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABILITY OF LSFO - THE STANDARD CLUB
The club has received reports that low sulphur fuel is not currently readily available in all Indonesian ports and that there are local shortages.
...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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