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Friday, 27 December 19
MISERY LOOMS OVER TOP COAL SHIPPERS AS CHINA TO BUY LESS IN 2020 BLOOMBERG
 China isn’t cutting back on consumption of the most-polluting fossil fuel just yet, but it is set to reduce imports.
The world’s biggest coal buyer will likely purchase less from overseas in 2020 after a boost this year, according to analysts. With domestic production rising to a record and overall demand nearing a plateau, miners from top exporters such as Indonesia and Australia will find themselves squeezed.
China’s coal imports have raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had predicted that the government would strictly clamp down on shipments in the later months just as it did in 2018. With economic growth at its weakest in decades amid a trade war with the U.S., import curbs were eased on the nation’s most-consumed fuel to help mitigate the pain of a slowdown.
Beijing regularly limits coal imports to buttress domestic miners amid a broader campaign to reduce the nation’s reliance on the fuel. Underpinning forecasts for lower imports in 2020 is the outlook for rising domestic supply as China promotes bigger and more efficient mining operations.
“New supply will create a coal glut,” said Michelle Leung, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s likely to cut China’s net imports by 8% in 2020 and hurt profitability of miners in Australia and Indonesia, she added.
China bought 299 million tons of coal for power and steel in the first 11 months, 10% higher than year-ago levels and a record for the period. It’s on course to exceed a 200 million- to 300 million-ton range touted by an industry official as necessary to support domestic miners and maintain balanced trade with exporting nations.
With more local supply to come in 2020, Chinese import controls will be a lasting feature and lead to a 25 million-ton drop in thermal coal purchases next year, Morgan Stanley estimates. The cutback will offset demand growth elsewhere in Asia, and seaborne prices may extend a slump to average $66 a ton from about $79 in 2019, the bank said.
For a country that burns and produces half the world’s coal, the strength of China’s import curbs may vary depending on the government’s competing priorities of protecting domestic miners and power plants. Utilities will face added pressure from January when market reforms are expected to result in lower electricity prices, which may hit their bottom line.
“The government wants to boost the economy any way it can, and a good way to do that is to let generators get the cheapest coal,” said James Stevenson, global director for coal research at IHS Markit Ltd. “At the same time, it doesn’t want imported coal risking domestic mining jobs.”
Market Revamp
Zeng Hao, an analyst at Fenwei Energy Information Services Co., is among the few expecting China to further relax its grip on coal imports in 2020 as policy makers would be disinclined to intervene in “market-based activity” amid the slowing economy, he said.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month expect China’s top leadership to set the target for economic growth at “about 6%” for 2020, which implies a continuation of the growth slowdown. The goal for this year is 6% to 6.5%.
Given the oversupply in China’s coal market, domestic prices are likely to remain at low levels next year, said Zhai Yu, a senior consultant at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. based in Beijing. That will reduce the attractiveness of overseas cargoes.
Spot coal at the main Qinhuangdao port is at a three-year low of 543 yuan a ton. A slide toward 500 yuan could motivate the government to step up restrictions on imports, he said.
Source: Bloomberg
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Saturday, 15 February 20
CHEN ZHIDA: NOVEL CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR CHARTERPARTIES - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Last month, the Club issued a bulletin on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) which explained the origin of the virus a ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
AFRAMAX: A MORE POSITIVE ATTITUDE EXISTED IN THIS SECTOR WITH RATES IMPROVING ON ALL ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
VLCC
The market in the Middle East was unmoved this week, with Chinese refiners continuing to slow imports, allied with the impact of the Coron ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
A 56,000DWT VESSEL WAS CONCLUDED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Riding the downward momentum of the previous week, the market was always going to be hard pressed to make any sort of revival. With mu ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION WILL TOTAL 595 MMST IN 2020, DOWN 14% FROM 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019.
Lower ...
Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between Chin ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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