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Thursday, 26 December 19
REVIEW OF 2019 AND OUTLOOK FOR 2020 - OPEC
 Global economic growth slowed in 2019, impacted by a variety of challenges. Trade issues not only led to reduction in global final consumption but also caused investment growth to decelerate. On the positive side, global trade slowdown has likely bottomed out, and now the negative trend in industrial production seen in 2019 is expected to reverse in 2020. As a result, global economic growth is forecast at 3.0% for both 2019 and 2020.
Recent progress on various trade agreements such as the conclusion of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership of Asian-Pacific nations may provide the base to re-energize the momentum in global trade, although challenges remain, particularly regarding ongoing trade talks between the US and its trade partners, particularly China.
While global monetary policies continue to be accommodative, high debt levels in many major economies represent some risk. Additional challenges are posed by fiscal issues in few EU Member Countries, Brexit, and Japan’s ongoing slowdown. Fiscal imbalances in emerging and developing economies may also have a negative effect on global economic growth, while recent social unrest in some economies may add more downward pressure.
Global oil demand is projected to rise by 0.98 mb/d in 2019, mainly due to cooling macro-economic indicators in major economies. Oil demand in the OECD is projected to grow by a marginal 0.02 mb/d in 2019, due to slowerthan-expected demand in the Americas and Asia Pacific. Weaker-than-expected diesel requirements in the US amid the slower pace in manufacturing and construction activity have limited demand growth in the current year. In Asia Pacific, significant petrochemical plant turnarounds reduced demand for petrochemical feedstock in 1H19. In non-OECD oil demand in 2019 is anticipated to rise by 0.96 mb/d, primarily as a result of slower-than-expected demand in India due to reduced industrial and transportation fuel requirements in 2Q19 and 3Q19. In 2020, global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.08 mb/d, with the OECD growing by 0.07 mb/d. OECD Americas is anticipated to be the only OECD region in positive demand growth territory next year, supported mainly by petrochemical capacity additions. In the non-OECD region, oil demand growth is projected to be around 1.01 mb/d, with growth projected to improve in Other Asia, Latin America and the Middle East. Indeed, the transportation and petrochemical sectors are expected to continue leading oil demand growth in 2020.
On the supply side, non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 has been lower than initial market expectations, now standing at 1.82 mb/d compared to the initial projection of 2.10 mb/d in July 2018. Weaker-thanexpected growth in Canada, Brazil, Norway, Kazakhstan, China and Russia has been the key contributor to the downward revision, despite the betterthan-expected performance of US liquids supply. US oil output is leading this growth with 1.62 mb/d in 2019. In 2020, non-OPEC supply is expected to see a continued slowdown in growth on the back of decreased investment and lower drilling activities in US tight oil. Non-OPEC supply is now forecast to grow by 2.17 mb/d in 2020, representing a downward revision of around 0.27 mb/d from initial forecasts in July 2019 on the back of downward revisions in US oil supply. Nevertheless, Graph 2: World oil demand and non-OPEC supply revisions from initial forecast in 2019 and 2020 incremental production from the US tight plays, particularly in the Permian Basin, as well as from offshore fields in Norway, Brazil, Australia and possibly Guyana, will contribute to the non-OPEC supply in 2020.
Evidently, significant and successful effort of countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) have helped the global oil market to remain relatively balanced in 2019. Going forward, countries participating in the DoC reaffirmed their continuing commitment to oil market stability as they have decided this month to adjust production further by another 500 tb/d, adding to the previous adjustment of 1.2 mb/d, and now totalling to 1.7 mb/d as of January 2020. This is to stabilize the market in the interests of both consumers and producers, as well as the wellbeing of the global economy.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling t ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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