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Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
 One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling trade-to-GDP ratio.
The falling ratio can be explained by slowing globalistation as well as increasing protectionist measures being implemented around the world, spear headed by the US. The raised barriers to trade are here to stay as we enter a new decade, with the shipping industry stuck with the consequences.
The trade war is the clearest example of these extra barriers to trade, and although a phase 1 deal was reached in December, the most difficult issues have yet to be addressed, and BIMCO therefore expects the trade war to continue to plague shipping between the US and China in 2020. Unfortunately, they are not the only countries engaging in tariff wars. The EU also faces additional tariffs from the US and we see trade tensions between Japan and South Korea.
The effects of the worsening of the fundamental shipping market balances this year will be felt in 2020, as the balance is not reset to zero when the calendar year changes. BIMCO continues to warn that the worsening balance between the supply of ships and the demand will be detrimental to shipowners’ ability to pass on the additional costs associated with compliance of the new IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap. It will depend on the freight rates to which extent the additional costs are covered, which in turn depend on the market conditions; the better the market, the easier it is to pass costs on.
Dry Bulk shipping
The biggest concern for Capesize shipping in 2020 is the trend in China, where iron ore imports may fall for the third year in a row. The structural change in China’s steel production, towards using scrap steel in favour of imported iron ore, means that Chinese demand for iron ore can no longer be counted on to increase demand for Capesize ships, with imports having peaked in 2017.
For the dry bulk shipping industry there is more bad news from China. Its soya bean imports have become an important part of the trade war and how it is viewed, but even aside from the trade war, the outlook for soya bean trades into China are weak. Its demand will be considerably lower due to the largest ever culling of pigs which consume most of China’s soya bean imports. It will take years for the Chinese pig population to return to the same size as before the cull, and even then, lowering the soya content in pig’s feed will have lasting consequences on these trades.
The high fleet growth in 2019 (4.1%) will play out into 2020 when the fleet is also expected to grow by more than demand. The cumulative impact of these growth rates mean that the gap between demand for shipping and the supply of ships will continue to grow, putting pressure on freight rates throughout the year.
Tanker Shipping
Crude oil tankers have certainly been in the headlines in 2019 due to geopolitical developments and as freight rates reached record levels as a result, but going into 2020, the fundamentals remain unchanged. This means that after the seasonal boost fades away in the first quarter, the high freight rates in the VLCC-market are likely to disappear, as the market fundamentals have in fact worsened in 2019, with an eight year high fleet growth of 6.3%.
Fleet growth has also been high in the oil product tanker market, with many owners aiming to benefit from the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap and the boost that BIMCO expects it will bring to the oil product tanker shipping industry. The boost are on the back of the new trades for the transport of compliant bunker fuels from the refineries to the bunkering ports.
While this boost will improve tanker earnings in the first 3-6 months of 2020, once the short term boost will fade away, the challenge facing the market is that the new ships will still be around , and will instead be fighting for cargoes in an already over-supplied market.
One of the major developments expected in 2020 is for the US to become a net exporter of crude oil on an annual basis. The increasing proportion of global crude oil exports coming from the US is good news for the tanker industry as this involves longer sailing distances to the Far East, where the major importers are, compared to exports from the Middle East.
Source: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
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Thursday, 09 January 20
SUPRAMAX: A NUMBER OF INDONESIAN ROUND TRIPS WERE REPORTED AT BELLOW USD 5,000 PD LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Capesize market has hit new low's in the first week of the new year, with the West Australia route being fixed at USD 6.6 being ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
WHAT IS BIMCO THINKING ABOUT 2020? - BIMCO
Every year, BIMCO considers what is in store for the shipping industry and for BIMCO in the coming years, while also reflecting on the year gone by ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
VINACOMIN SETS TO SELL 49 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2020 - VIETNAM NET
The Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited (Vinacomin) has set to sell 49 million tonnes of coal in 2020, a year-on-y ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE CUTS 18.95 MLN TONNES OF CAPACITY IN 2019 - XINHUA
North China’s Shanxi Province reduced its coal production capacity by 18.95 million tonnes by closing 18 coal mines in 2019.
A ...
Wednesday, 08 January 20
JANUARY INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS US$ 0.37 MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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