We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
 What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 December, I turned to Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President Macro Oils, for answers.
What does good look like for OPEC in 2020? Given the uncertainty around global supply growth, demand and geopolitics, OPEC will do well to get an outcome like 2019. Brent will average U.S.$64 per barrel in 2019, down on last year’s U.S.$71, but still the second-highest annual price since 2014. It’s a measure of OPEC’s success so far in balancing what is a fundamentally an oversupplied market.
Will demand recover in 2020? We think so. This year has disappointed because of a series of one-off factors and the slowing global economy. The 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) outcome will be well down on the 1.1 million b/d we forecast back in January 2019.
Sanctions-related demand destruction in Venezuela and Iran, plus warm weather in Europe shouldn’t feature next year. We think annual growth will double in 2020 to 1.4 million b/d. China will be key – we expect growth there to double to 0.6 million b/d, buoyed by strong demand for marine gasoil, as bunker volumes move in response to the new low-sulphur IMO regulations on shipping fuels.
Is global supply still growing rapidly? Yes, we expect an increase of 1.8 million b/d in 2020 –assuming OPEC+ maintains its current production cuts.
What’s changing is the mix, and for the first time in years, the U.S. Lower 48 won’t dominate as much. U.S. is about half the 2020 growth, with the rest coming from other non-OPEC producers including Guyana, Brazil and Norway. The giant Norwegian field, Johan Sverdrup, on stream since October, will add 0.3 million b/d in 2020.
So, U.S. tight oil is still growing? Yes, but at a much slower rate. We expect an increase of 0.5 million b/d, well below the 2018 annual peak of 1.5 million b/d. The rig count is down by 18%, or almost 200 rigs from the November 2018 high, across all tight oil plays. Monthly production growth year-on-year peaked at 1.8 million b/d in August 2018 and could slip to just 0.4 million b/d by end 2020.
Did we anticipate that? We expected 2018 to be the peak year of U.S. tight oil growth – but not the rate of slowdown we’re seeing unfold. Investors are forcing U.S. independents, which account for 80% of tight oil production, to pare back spend on growth and generate cash flow.
What growth there is by end 2020 will come mostly from the Majors (ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP and Shell) whose plans are unaffected by capital constraints.
There’s a certain irony that the free market, through shareholder influence, is succeeding in slowing growth – to OPEC’s advantage.
Time will tell how long it lasts – we think we’ll see tight oil growth recover in 2021 though not back to peak rates.
What about OPEC production? A lot of OPEC oil is off the market – volumes are 2.5 million b/d below a year ago. Around half of that is involuntary, due to U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan and Iranian exports. The other 1.2 million b/d are deliberate cuts by OPEC+. Admirable adherence by key producers in the OPEC+ group has been instrumental in balancing the market and holding Brent above U.S.$60 this year. Without cuts, prices would be much lower.
What does OPEC need to do in December? The current agreement on cuts expires in March 2020. OPEC+ needs to rollover through to the end of 2020. But with global supply growth outpacing demand in 2020, we’ll need further cuts if demand growth disappoints again. OPEC will have to move promptly, in this case, and take out additional production if it wants to support price.
Will fundamentals or geopolitics drive the market in 2020? A bit of both. Tension in the Middle East and U.S. global influence are risks again next year. U.S. foreign policy has been emboldened by the rise of tight oil in 2019, indirectly affecting export sanctions – on Venezuela and Iran – and the attack on the giant Abqaiq facility in Saudi Arabia in September.
None of the geopolitical challenges of 2019 has gone away. But we can see signs already that the U.S. is refocusing on domestic policy in the run-up to the presidential election next November.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
|
|
|
Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
