We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
 What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 December, I turned to Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President Macro Oils, for answers.
What does good look like for OPEC in 2020? Given the uncertainty around global supply growth, demand and geopolitics, OPEC will do well to get an outcome like 2019. Brent will average U.S.$64 per barrel in 2019, down on last year’s U.S.$71, but still the second-highest annual price since 2014. It’s a measure of OPEC’s success so far in balancing what is a fundamentally an oversupplied market.
Will demand recover in 2020? We think so. This year has disappointed because of a series of one-off factors and the slowing global economy. The 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) outcome will be well down on the 1.1 million b/d we forecast back in January 2019.
Sanctions-related demand destruction in Venezuela and Iran, plus warm weather in Europe shouldn’t feature next year. We think annual growth will double in 2020 to 1.4 million b/d. China will be key – we expect growth there to double to 0.6 million b/d, buoyed by strong demand for marine gasoil, as bunker volumes move in response to the new low-sulphur IMO regulations on shipping fuels.
Is global supply still growing rapidly? Yes, we expect an increase of 1.8 million b/d in 2020 –assuming OPEC+ maintains its current production cuts.
What’s changing is the mix, and for the first time in years, the U.S. Lower 48 won’t dominate as much. U.S. is about half the 2020 growth, with the rest coming from other non-OPEC producers including Guyana, Brazil and Norway. The giant Norwegian field, Johan Sverdrup, on stream since October, will add 0.3 million b/d in 2020.
So, U.S. tight oil is still growing? Yes, but at a much slower rate. We expect an increase of 0.5 million b/d, well below the 2018 annual peak of 1.5 million b/d. The rig count is down by 18%, or almost 200 rigs from the November 2018 high, across all tight oil plays. Monthly production growth year-on-year peaked at 1.8 million b/d in August 2018 and could slip to just 0.4 million b/d by end 2020.
Did we anticipate that? We expected 2018 to be the peak year of U.S. tight oil growth – but not the rate of slowdown we’re seeing unfold. Investors are forcing U.S. independents, which account for 80% of tight oil production, to pare back spend on growth and generate cash flow.
What growth there is by end 2020 will come mostly from the Majors (ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP and Shell) whose plans are unaffected by capital constraints.
There’s a certain irony that the free market, through shareholder influence, is succeeding in slowing growth – to OPEC’s advantage.
Time will tell how long it lasts – we think we’ll see tight oil growth recover in 2021 though not back to peak rates.
What about OPEC production? A lot of OPEC oil is off the market – volumes are 2.5 million b/d below a year ago. Around half of that is involuntary, due to U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan and Iranian exports. The other 1.2 million b/d are deliberate cuts by OPEC+. Admirable adherence by key producers in the OPEC+ group has been instrumental in balancing the market and holding Brent above U.S.$60 this year. Without cuts, prices would be much lower.
What does OPEC need to do in December? The current agreement on cuts expires in March 2020. OPEC+ needs to rollover through to the end of 2020. But with global supply growth outpacing demand in 2020, we’ll need further cuts if demand growth disappoints again. OPEC will have to move promptly, in this case, and take out additional production if it wants to support price.
Will fundamentals or geopolitics drive the market in 2020? A bit of both. Tension in the Middle East and U.S. global influence are risks again next year. U.S. foreign policy has been emboldened by the rise of tight oil in 2019, indirectly affecting export sanctions – on Venezuela and Iran – and the attack on the giant Abqaiq facility in Saudi Arabia in September.
None of the geopolitical challenges of 2019 has gone away. But we can see signs already that the U.S. is refocusing on domestic policy in the run-up to the presidential election next November.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
|
|
|
Showing 1406 to 1410 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
|
| |
| |
|
