We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
 What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 December, I turned to Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President Macro Oils, for answers.
What does good look like for OPEC in 2020? Given the uncertainty around global supply growth, demand and geopolitics, OPEC will do well to get an outcome like 2019. Brent will average U.S.$64 per barrel in 2019, down on last year’s U.S.$71, but still the second-highest annual price since 2014. It’s a measure of OPEC’s success so far in balancing what is a fundamentally an oversupplied market.
Will demand recover in 2020? We think so. This year has disappointed because of a series of one-off factors and the slowing global economy. The 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d) outcome will be well down on the 1.1 million b/d we forecast back in January 2019.
Sanctions-related demand destruction in Venezuela and Iran, plus warm weather in Europe shouldn’t feature next year. We think annual growth will double in 2020 to 1.4 million b/d. China will be key – we expect growth there to double to 0.6 million b/d, buoyed by strong demand for marine gasoil, as bunker volumes move in response to the new low-sulphur IMO regulations on shipping fuels.
Is global supply still growing rapidly? Yes, we expect an increase of 1.8 million b/d in 2020 –assuming OPEC+ maintains its current production cuts.
What’s changing is the mix, and for the first time in years, the U.S. Lower 48 won’t dominate as much. U.S. is about half the 2020 growth, with the rest coming from other non-OPEC producers including Guyana, Brazil and Norway. The giant Norwegian field, Johan Sverdrup, on stream since October, will add 0.3 million b/d in 2020.
So, U.S. tight oil is still growing? Yes, but at a much slower rate. We expect an increase of 0.5 million b/d, well below the 2018 annual peak of 1.5 million b/d. The rig count is down by 18%, or almost 200 rigs from the November 2018 high, across all tight oil plays. Monthly production growth year-on-year peaked at 1.8 million b/d in August 2018 and could slip to just 0.4 million b/d by end 2020.
Did we anticipate that? We expected 2018 to be the peak year of U.S. tight oil growth – but not the rate of slowdown we’re seeing unfold. Investors are forcing U.S. independents, which account for 80% of tight oil production, to pare back spend on growth and generate cash flow.
What growth there is by end 2020 will come mostly from the Majors (ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP and Shell) whose plans are unaffected by capital constraints.
There’s a certain irony that the free market, through shareholder influence, is succeeding in slowing growth – to OPEC’s advantage.
Time will tell how long it lasts – we think we’ll see tight oil growth recover in 2021 though not back to peak rates.
What about OPEC production? A lot of OPEC oil is off the market – volumes are 2.5 million b/d below a year ago. Around half of that is involuntary, due to U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan and Iranian exports. The other 1.2 million b/d are deliberate cuts by OPEC+. Admirable adherence by key producers in the OPEC+ group has been instrumental in balancing the market and holding Brent above U.S.$60 this year. Without cuts, prices would be much lower.
What does OPEC need to do in December? The current agreement on cuts expires in March 2020. OPEC+ needs to rollover through to the end of 2020. But with global supply growth outpacing demand in 2020, we’ll need further cuts if demand growth disappoints again. OPEC will have to move promptly, in this case, and take out additional production if it wants to support price.
Will fundamentals or geopolitics drive the market in 2020? A bit of both. Tension in the Middle East and U.S. global influence are risks again next year. U.S. foreign policy has been emboldened by the rise of tight oil in 2019, indirectly affecting export sanctions – on Venezuela and Iran – and the attack on the giant Abqaiq facility in Saudi Arabia in September.
None of the geopolitical challenges of 2019 has gone away. But we can see signs already that the U.S. is refocusing on domestic policy in the run-up to the presidential election next November.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
|
|
|
Showing 1351 to 1355 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
|
| |
| |
|
